Re­se­arch | 27 Ja­nu­ar 2025 14:31

Ori­gi­nal-Re­se­arch: Um­welt­Bank AG – from GBC AG

27.01.2025 / 14:30 CET/CEST
Dis­se­mi­na­ti­on of a Re­se­arch, trans­mit­ted by EQS News – a ser­vice of EQS Group.
The is­suer is so­le­ly re­spon­si­ble for the con­tent of this re­se­arch. The re­sult of this re­se­arch does not con­sti­tu­te in­vest­ment ad­vice or an in­vi­ta­ti­on to con­clude cer­tain stock ex­ch­an­ge tran­sac­tions.


Clas­si­fi­ca­ti­on of GBC AG to Um­welt­Bank AG

Com­pa­ny Name: Um­welt­Bank AG
ISIN: DE0005570808
Re­ason for the re­se­arch: Re­se­arch Com­ment
Re­com­men­da­ti­on: Buy
Tar­get pri­ce: 10.00 EUR
Tar­get pri­ce on sight of: 31.12.2025
Last ra­ting ch­an­ge:
Ana­lyst: Cos­min Fil­ker, Mar­cel Gold­mann

Ma­nage­ment Board pres­ents con­vin­cing growth sce­na­rio at the Ca­pi­tal Mar­kets Day

At the Ca­pi­tal Mar­kets Day, which Um­welt­Bank AG held for the first time on 15 Ja­nu­ary 2025, the com­pa­ny pro­vi­ded an up­date on its stra­te­gic di­rec­tion up to the 2028 fi­nan­cial year and a ru­di­men­ta­ry re­view of the past 2024 fi­nan­cial year. The preli­mi­na­ry fi­gu­res will be pu­blished on 31 March 2024. In ad­di­ti­on to a pre­sen­ta­ti­on by Diet­mar von Blü­cher who, on that very day, re­a­ched the one-year mark as a mem­ber of Umweltbank’s Exe­cu­ti­ve Board, ha­ving be­gun on 15 Ja­nu­ary 2024, the heads of the va­rious de­part­ments (Pri­va­te Cli­ents, HR, Cor­po­ra­te Cli­ents) gave key­note spee­ches, pro­vi­ding a good in­sight into the in­ner workings of the bank.

The ex­pan­si­on of the lia­bi­li­ties side, i.e. the de­po­sit busi­ness, is an im­portant cor­ner­stone of their cor­po­ra­te stra­tegy and should con­tri­bu­te si­gni­fi­cant­ly to the growth of net in­te­rest and com­mis­si­on in­co­me in the fu­ture. Ac­cor­ding to the com­pa­ny, an in­te­rest mar­gin of around 100 ba­sis points can be achie­ved by in­ves­t­ing cus­to­mer funds at matching ma­tu­ri­ties (ECB in­vest­ment). Against this back­drop, the ex­pan­si­on of pri­va­te cus­to­mer de­po­sits to around € 3.5 bil­li­on in 2024 (2023: € 2.5 bil­li­on) should be seen as a good ba­sis for an ex­pec­ted in­crease in the fi­nan­cial re­sult. The ‚Um­welt­Flex­kon­to‘ call mo­ney (curr­ent­ly: 2.0% in­te­rest) in par­ti­cu­lar is li­kely to have ge­ne­ra­ted high de­mand.

While de­po­sits from pri­va­te cus­to­mers are gro­wing dy­na­mi­cal­ly, growth in the cor­po­ra­te cus­to­mer busi­ness, which pri­ma­ri­ly com­pri­ses loan fi­nan­cing for sus­tainable pro­jects (pro­per­ty, wind, so­lar), is de­pen­dent on the rest­ric­ti­ve equi­ty fac­tor. With a to­tal ca­pi­tal ra­tio of 16.9% (30 Oc­to­ber 2024), the­re is a suf­fi­ci­ent ca­pi­tal buf­fer to the re­gu­la­to­ry va­lue of 15.5%, but strong growth in cre­dit vo­lu­me can­not be achie­ved wi­t­hout ad­di­tio­nal equi­ty. On the one hand, ad­di­tio­nal equi­ty is to be ob­tai­ned by re­du­cing the hig­her ca­pi­tal surchar­ge for len­ding set by BaFin. On the other hand, it is to come from the plan­ned com­ple­te sale of equi­ty in­vest­ments by 2026.

At the Ca­pi­tal Mar­kets Day, Diet­mar von Blü­cher also pre­sen­ted a de­tail­ed ear­nings and ex­pen­ses sce­na­rio up to the fi­nan­cial year 2028. Net in­te­rest in­co­me is ex­pec­ted to rise si­gni­fi­cant­ly again from the cur­rent fi­nan­cial year 2025 on­wards, ha­ving bot­to­med out in 2023 and 2024. The sce­na­rio gra­phic pre­sen­ted at the Ca­pi­tal Mar­kets Day in­di­ca­tes a ran­ge of € 60 – € 70 mil­li­on for the cur­rent fi­nan­cial year 2025 and of around € 70 – € 80 mil­li­on for the co­ming fi­nan­cial year 2026. The main dri­ver for this growth is ex­pec­ted to be a si­gni­fi­cant in­crease in the de­po­sit busi­ness, which can then be in­ves­ted risk-free at the ECB at im­pro­ved con­di­ti­ons.

At the same time, net in­te­rest in­co­me should be­ne­fit from an im­pro­ve­ment in the in­te­rest mar­gin in the cor­po­ra­te cus­to­mer busi­ness, i.e. in the len­ding busi­ness. Ex­pi­ring lo­ans will be re­pla­ced by new lo­ans with im­pro­ved con­di­ti­ons. By 2028, the an­nu­al new len­ding busi­ness is ex­pec­ted to in­crease from around € 245 mil­li­on in 2024 to over € 650 mil­li­on. At the same time, the ra­tio of len­ding to ca­pi­tal com­mit­ment is to be im­pro­ved by, among other things, ta­king out syn­di­ca­ted lo­ans.

The com­pa­ny ex­pects net com­mis­si­on and tra­ding in­co­me to be­ne­fit from ri­sing in­co­me in the se­cu­ri­ties and len­ding busi­ness. In the midd­le of the past fi­nan­cial year, the suc­cessful is­sue of the first Um­welt­Bank ETF was ad­ded to their own is­sues busi­ness. Fur­ther ETFs and the ex­pan­si­on of their fund busi­ness should lead to an in­crease in com­mis­si­on and tra­ding in­co­me.

The ex­pec­ted in­crease in net in­te­rest in­co­me and net com­mis­si­on and tra­ding in­co­me is li­kely to be off­set by a dis­pro­por­tio­na­te­ly low in­crease in ad­mi­nis­tra­ti­ve ex­pen­ses. This is par­ti­cu­lar­ly true in light of the trans­for­ma­ti­on im­ple­men­ted in re­cent ye­ars, which should lead to a si­gni­fi­cant re­duc­tion in ad­mi­nis­tra­ti­ve ex­pen­ses from 2025 on­wards. The tar­get of achie­ving a cost-in­co­me ra­tio of less than 60% by the 2028 fi­nan­cial year is the­r­e­fo­re con­firm­ed. Com­pared to the pre­vious growth sce­na­rio, the Ma­nage­ment Board of Um­welt­Bank ex­pects a flat­ter in­crease in ear­nings be­fo­re ta­xes, par­ti­cu­lar­ly from the 2027 fi­nan­cial year on­wards. This is pri­ma­ri­ly due to lower mo­men­tum in the len­ding busi­ness.

Our pre­vious esti­ma­tes (see Re­se­arch Com­ment da­ted 15 No­vem­ber 2024), which co­ver the fo­re­cast pe­ri­od from 2024 to 2026, are lar­ge­ly in line with the company’s up­dated sce­na­rio. We the­r­e­fo­re con­firm the­se and at the same time the pri­ce tar­get of €10.00 de­ter­mi­ned wi­thin the frame­work of a re­si­du­al in­co­me mo­del. The ra­ting re­mains BUY.

You can down­load the re­se­arch here: http://​www​.more​-ir​.de/​d​/​3​1​6​7​1​.​pdf

Cont­act for ques­ti­ons:
GBC AG
Hal­der­stra­ße 27
86150 Augs­burg
0821241133 0
research@​gbc-​ag.​de
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Of­fen­le­gung mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sens­kon­flik­te nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben ana­ly­sier­ten Un­ter­neh­men ist fol­gen­der mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sen­kon­flikt ge­ge­ben: (1,4,5a,6a,7,11); Ei­nen Ka­ta­log mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sen­kon­flik­te fin­den Sie un­ter:
https://​www​.gbc​-ag​.de/​d​e​/​O​f​f​e​n​l​e​g​ung
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Date (time) Com­ple­ti­on: 27.01.2025 (8:56 am)
Date (time) first trans­mis­si­on: 27.01.25 (2:30 pm)

Ori­gi­nal-Re­se­arch: Um­welt­Bank AG (von GBC AG): Buy

GBC AG
Hal­der­stra­ße 27
86150 Augs­burg

Pho­ne: +49 821 241133–0
E‑mail: office(@)gbc-ag.de

Fol­low us!