Original-Research: Almonty Industries Inc. (by GBC AG): BUY
| Original-Research: Almonty Industries Inc. – from GBC AG
21.07.2025 / 10:00 CET/CEST Classification of GBC AG to Almonty Industries Inc.
Almonty Industries Inc. vs. MP Materials Corp.: A Significant Valuation Gap in Critical Minerals Almonty Industries Inc. and MP Materials Corp. are both players in the critical minerals space, supplying materials vital for modern industries and strategic applications. Almonty focuses on tungsten, a metal essential for defense, electronics, and industrial tooling, while MP Materials is a leading U.S. producer of rare earth elements, particularly neodymium and praseodymium, used in permanent magnets for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and military technologies. Recently, Almonty has been progressing the development of its flagship Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea, which is expected to start production in late 2025 and potentially double capacity by 2027 through a planned expansion. Meanwhile, MP Materials continues to operate the Mountain Pass mine in California and has begun integrating downstream into magnet manufacturing to capture more value from its rare earth output. Both companies are strategically important, as Western nations aim to reduce dependence on China for critical minerals supply chains. Despite these parallels in strategic relevance, a significant valuation discrepancy exists between the two companies when measured against future EBITDA. Almonty’s market capitalization currently stands at 1.20 billion, far below MP Materials at 5.08 billion. Yet, Almonty’s EBITDA forecasts paint a picture of explosive growth. From 105.18 million in 2026, Almonty’s EBITDA is expected to more than triple to 384.55 million by 2028. In contrast, MP Materials’ EBITDA grows from 125.20 million in 2026 to only 190.92 million in 2028. This growth differential is starkly reflected in valuation multiples. Almonty trades at a 11.4x multiple of its 2026 estimated EBITDA, falling dramatically to just 3.1x by 2028. Meanwhile, MP Materials commands much higher multiples across the forecast period: 78.7x in 2026, 51.5x in 2027, and 51.6x in 2028. By 2028, despite Almonty projecting roughly double the EBITDA of MP Materials, it trades at only about one-seventeenth of MP’s EBITDA multiple. The explanation likely lies in investor perceptions. MP Materials enjoys the visibility of being an established U.S. producer with proven operations and government support, and benefits from its NYSE listing and active investor following. Almonty, by contrast, remains a development story, carrying the execution risk of bringing Sangdong fully online and scaling its operations as planned. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the current discount appears excessive if Almonty achieves its targets. Trading at just 3.1 times projected 2028 EBITDA, Almonty offers investors significant upside potential relative to MP Materials. Based on MP Materials’ EBITDA multiples, Almonty’s valuation could be considerably higher: applying MP’s multiples to Almonty’s earnings would imply a valuation of around 8.27 billion for 2026, approximately 10.38 billion for 2027, and as high as 19.84 billion for 2028. This suggests that if Almonty were valued in line with MP Materials on an earnings multiple basis, its market capitalization could increase fifteenfold from current levels. You can download the research here: 20250718_Almonty_Comment Contact for questions: ++++++++++++++++ |
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