Original-Research: Cenit AG (by GBC AG): BUY
| Original-Research: Cenit AG – by GBC AG
06.08.2025 / 12:00 CET/CEST Classification of GBC AG to Cenit AG
Analysis Prime weighs on revenue and earnings; forecast and price target lowered, BUY rating confirmed Although CENIT AG increased its revenue by 4.4% to €103.71 million in the first half of 2025 (previous year: €93.36 million), this performance fell significantly short of our expectations and those of CENIT’s management. The increase in revenue was exclusively attributable to the revenues of the US company Analysis Prime, which was acquired in July 2024 and was included in the figures for the first half of the year for the first time. According to our calculations, these revenues are likely to have amounted to slightly more than €6 million. According to former estimates, Analysis Prime should generate sales of around €25 million in the 2025 financial year. However, in view of the sales achieved in the first half of the year, this forecast is clearly too optimistic. Restructuring measures are currently underway at this subsidiary, particularly at management level. At the same time, the continuing difficult market environment in Europe is making itself felt. The German automotive industry, in particular, which is an important customer sector for the company, is affected by a decline in business volume, with the result that CENIT AG had to accept an organic decline in revenue of around 2%. Despite the increase in revenue, EBIT deteriorated to €-3.69 million (previous year: €2.01 million). In the first half of 2025, special expenses of around €3.8 million were incurred in connection with the implementation of the ‘Project Performance’ restructuring programme. This programme aims to reduce the number of employees by around 50. Although this has resulted in cost improvements, significant positive effects are not expected to become apparent until the coming financial year. In addition to the special expenses, Analysis Prime reported a negative EBIT of €1.6 million in the first half of 2025, which also had a negative impact on the Group’s results. Despite the negative operating result, operating cash flow was once again clearly positive at €9.99 million (previous year: €11.15 million). Advance payments received contributed significantly to this, meaning that CENIT AG remains in a very comfortable position with cash and cash equivalents of €20.59 million as of 30 June 2025. Due to the below-expectations performance of Analysis Prime and the continuing difficult market situation, CENIT’s management has significantly adjusted its forecast. Revenue of at least €205 million and EBIT of at least €-1.5 million are now expected. Previously, revenue of €229 million to €234 million and EBIT of €6.8 million to €7.3 million had been expected. The main reason for this reduction in the forecast is Analysis Prime, for which sales of around €15 million are currently planned, a significant adjustment compared to the previous expectation of around €25 million. In addition, the weak market situation in Europe is causing customers to remain cautious. We are guided by the new forecast and expect revenue of €208.95 million and EBIT of €-0.28 million. For the second half of 2025, this means a return to positive EBIT. This is primarily a result of the virtual elimination of special expenses, which amounted to €3.8 million in the first half of the year. The elimination of these expenses in the coming financial year and the resulting positive effects of approximately €5 million should have a significant positive impact on EBIT in the coming financial year. Due to the now lower revenue base, we have reduced our revenue forecasts for 2026 to €221.35 million (previously: €242.22 million). However, we expect a noticeable improvement in EBIT to €11.21 million (previously: €13.40 million). The same applies to the 2027 financial year. Based on the adjusted DCF valuation model, we have determined a new target price of €16.00 (previously: €19.00). The reduction in the target price is a consequence of our lower forecasts. We are maintaining our ‘BUY’ rating. You can download the research here: 20250806_CENIT_Comment_engl Contact for questions: https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm |
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