| Original-Research: SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG – from GBC AG
17.03.2026 / 10:00 CET/CEST Classification of GBC AG to SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG
Smartbroker Holding AG: Preliminary 2025 figures confirm strong operating performance, with a solid foundation for further profitable growth in 2026 Smartbroker Holding AG has published preliminary, unaudited figures for the 2025 financial year and at the same time provided guidance for the current 2026 financial year. According to the company, revenue for the past year came in at €69.0 million, while operating EBITDA reached break even at €0.0 million. In addition, around 77,350 new customers were acquired for Smartbroker+ in the transactions business. Both revenue and earnings were therefore in line with the company guidance, which had been raised several times over the course of the year. For 2026, the company expects group revenue in a range of €66.0 million to €72.0 million and operating EBITDA between negative €1.5 million and positive €1.5 million. In brokerage, Smartbroker expects to add around 100,000 new customers in 2026. In the context of our last Research Comment dated 7 January 2026, the newly published preliminary figures came in slightly ahead of our expectations overall. Based on the company guidance that had been raised at that time, we had forecast 2025 revenue of €68.0 million and operating EBITDA of €0.0 million. The actual preliminary revenue figure therefore came in slightly above our estimate, while operating EBITDA matched our forecast exactly. This confirms the strong operating momentum that had already become visible during the year. In particular, high trading activity, strong customer growth and progress in scaling the platform had a positive impact. We view it as especially encouraging that the company was operationally profitable in 2025 before taking customer acquisition costs into account and generated clearly positive EBITDA before these expenses. In our view, this underlines the growing operating resilience of the business model. The earnings profile is therefore less a sign of structural margin pressure and more the result of deliberately elevated investment in future growth. It is also worth highlighting that Smartbroker met the target range that had been raised several times during the year. This shows that the company was able to maintain the strong operating momentum in its brokerage business through year end. Although new customer additions of 77,350 were slightly below the most recently indicated level of around 80,000, we see this as only a marginal shortfall given the overall strong momentum. More importantly, the figures continue to point to significantly improved market penetration and the strong appeal of the Smartbroker+ platform. In addition, we believe the quality of the customer base is a key differentiator for Smartbroker+ and is not yet fully reflected in how the company is currently perceived. One particularly notable factor is the above average trading activity of its users. In 2025, Smartbroker+ customers executed around 38 trades per customer on average. This activity level is clearly above that of many competitors. By comparison, based on preliminary 2025 figures, flatexDEGIRO reported a significantly lower level of 23 trades per customer. For traditional brokers such as comdirect, Consorsbank and DKB, we assume that activity levels are in a similar range or lower. This customer profile is especially relevant because monetization in the brokerage business depends heavily on trading frequency. The high level of trading activity therefore suggests that Smartbroker+ is particularly successful in attracting trading oriented customers who are economically more valuable. In our view, this supports the company’s strategic positioning in the active investor segment and should translate into structurally more attractive revenue quality per customer over the medium term. The customer base also appears high quality in terms of assets under custody per customer. According to the company, assets per Smartbroker+ customer amount to around €55k, which is a high level. Combined with the significantly higher trading intensity, this reinforces our view that Smartbroker+ is not only winning customers, but is building durable relationships with especially valuable and trading active clients. At first glance, the 2026 guidance may appear cautious, but in our view it should be regarded as solid and achievable. The main reason for this conservative stance is likely the ban on payment for order flow, or PFOF, which will take effect from July 2026 and will prevent brokers from continuing to receive these payments. The PFOF ban prohibits brokers from accepting compensation for routing client orders to specific trading venues. For many neobrokers, this removes a revenue stream that has been relevant until now and creates pressure to adjust pricing structures, cost bases and monetization models. That said, it is encouraging that, according to the company, the loss of this revenue is expected to be almost fully offset by cost measures introduced at an early stage. As a result, management does not expect any major structural impact on future earnings. We also see it as a strong signal of the competitiveness and resilience of the business model that Smartbroker intends to continue offering its full product range to end customers on unchanged terms. We are also encouraged by the start to the new financial year. In the first two months of 2026 alone, the company added more than 13,000 new customers. In addition, January delivered a new monthly record for executed trades. This performance highlights the company’s strong operating condition and suggests that the target of 100,000 new customers is based on realistic assumptions even without the introduction of a retirement investment account. The strategic focus for 2026 is on accelerating customer growth once again. To achieve this, marketing investment in new customer acquisition is set to rise to around €12.5 million, up roughly €2.5 million from the previous year. At the same time, the company is continuing to expand Smartbroker+ both technologically and in terms of product offering. Planned additions include features such as direct debits, powers of attorney, stop loss and hedging orders, automatic reinvestment of distributions and dividends, an improved desktop version and junior accounts. At the same time, the IT team is expected to grow by a further 20 employees across IT, data and artificial intelligence. Another supportive factor is the still profitable portal business, which continues to provide a stable earnings base. For 2026, the company expects this segment to generate revenue of around €28 million and EBITDA of around €6 million. This earnings base acts as a reliable cash flow anchor and provides the financial flexibility needed to continue investing in growth initiatives in the brokerage segment. Especially during the current transformation phase, we believe the hybrid business model, combining a high margin media business with a high growth brokerage business, represents a significant strategic advantage. There may also be additional upside from the planned retirement investment account. This is not yet reflected in the current guidance, but if implemented politically it could provide further growth momentum and position Smartbroker early in a newly emerging market segment. At the same time, the medium-term outlook also appears attractive. As part of its strategic development, the company is now targeting structural annual new customer growth of around 130,000 from 2027 onward, compared with the previous assumption of 100,000 new customers per year. The potential effects of a retirement investment account are not yet included in this figure. In our view, this creates additional medium term upside potential. Overall, we believe the preliminary 2025 figures confirm the company’s very encouraging operating performance. At the same time, the 2026 guidance shows that despite regulatory headwinds, Smartbroker has a robust operating base and is determined to continue on its growth path. The strong start to 2026, the continued willingness to invest in customer growth and technology, and the improved medium term growth outlook all reinforce what we see as the company’s attractive opportunity profile. Overall, we believe the investment case has not only been confirmed by the preliminary figures, but further strengthened. We will conduct a more comprehensive reassessment once the final numbers are published. You can download the research here: 20260317_Smartbroker_Comment_en Contact for questions: |
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Original-Research: Aspermont Ltd. (by GBC AG): Buy
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