Original-Research: Cenit AG (by GBC AG): BUY
| Original-Research: CENIT AG – from GBC AG
25.03.2026 / 14:30 CET/CEST Classification of GBC AG to CENIT AG
Preliminary figures exceed the company’s guidance; guidance for 2026 is slightly more conservative than expected According to preliminary figures, CENIT AG achieved a significant improvement in operating performance in fiscal year 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter. With consolidated revenue of €209.5 million for the full year (previous year: €207.3 million), the company met the revenue guidance of at least €205 million, which had been adjusted in the 2025 half-year report. Our previous estimates, in which we had anticipated revenue of €208.95 million, were also slightly exceeded. At €55.3 million (previous year: €55.9 million), the revenue level for the fourth quarter of 2025 matched the already strong figure from the previous year. Particularly noteworthy is the development of proprietary software revenue, which increased by 11.2% to €21.4 million (previous year: €19.3 million). In the fourth quarter of 2025, this figure reached a new all-time quarterly record of €7.3 million (previous year: €5.6 million). This is likely to have contributed, among other factors, to the EBITDA of €12.3 million (previous year: €17.3 million), which exceeded our expectations. The decline in earnings compared to the previous year is primarily attributable to special expenses related to the implementation of the “Project Performance” restructuring program. As part of this program, the number of employees was reduced by over 50. This resulted in special expenses of approximately €4.0 million. Furthermore, the earnings picture is likely also influenced by the negative earnings of the subsidiary Analysis Prime, acquired in 2024. On the other hand, there are positive effects from the cost savings implemented. This is evident from the EBITDA of €6.6 million achieved in the fourth quarter of 2025, which represents a significant jump compared to the EBITDA of the previous quarters. While EBITDA exceeded our expectations (GBC forecast: €10.9 million), the reported preliminary EBIT of €0.3 million (GBC forecast: €0.8 million) fell short of our expectations. We assume that extraordinary write-downs, for example related to the customer base of Analysis Prime, likely led to unexpectedly high write-downs here. However, CENIT’s guidance was fully met for both revenue and EBIT. In addition, the strong increase in operating cash flow to €14.1 million (previous year: €10.3 million) and the planned further reduction in bank liabilities are worth noting, which lowered net bank debt to €17.1 million (previous year: €23.8 million). In our view, the outlook for 2026 is particularly significant. CENIT management forecasts revenue of at least €210.0 million and EBITDA of at least €18.0 million for 2026. Even though this formulation naturally represents a lower bound, these figures fall short of our previous expectations (previous revenue forecast: €221.4 million, previous EBITDA forecast: €22.2 million). Since we believe the company has taken a conservative approach in formulating its guidance (Dassault’s 2026 software revenue forecast: +3% to +5%; SAP’s 2026 total revenue forecast: +12% to +13%), we are revising our estimates downward for the current and upcoming fiscal years. We now expect revenue of €214.7 million and EBITDA of €19.8 million for 2026, and revenue of €227.6 million and EBITDA of €23.6 million for 2027 (previous estimate: revenue €233.2 million; EBITDA €25.0 million). Based on the updated DCF valuation model, we have determined a new price target of €15.00 (previously: €16.00). We therefore maintain our BUY rating. We will provide a detailed overview of business performance in 2025, our forecasts, and the inclusion of a new forecast period (2028e) following the publication of the annual report on April 9, 2026. You can download the research here: 20260325_CENIT_Comment_engl Contact for questions: |
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