Original-Research: CENIT AG (by GBC AG): Buy
| Original-Research: CENIT AG – from GBC AG
15.04.2026 / 12:00 CET/CEST Classification of GBC AG to CENIT AG
Focus on improving profitability likely to characterise the current financial year, earnings turnaround in sight In the 2025 financial year, CENIT AG achieved a slight increase in revenue of 1.1% to €209.51 million (previous year: €207.33 million), thereby slightly exceeding the company forecast adjusted at the half-year 2025. Growth was primarily driven by inorganic expansion through the first-time full consolidation of Analysis Prime, whilst organic growth saw a slight decline. Difficult market conditions, particularly in the automotive and mechanical engineering sectors, which are key for the company, prevented a stronger revenue performance. At the product group level, there is a clear structural shift towards higher-margin revenue streams. Revenue from proprietary software once again showed particularly dynamic growth, rising by 11.2% to €21.42 million (previous year: €19.27 million) and recording a significant growth spurt, particularly in the fourth quarter. The consulting and services business also grew by 2.4% to €87.41 million (previous year: €85.34 million), attributable in part to the contribution from Analysis Prime. By contrast, revenue in the traditionally high-volume third-party software business fell by 2.3% to €100.26 million, reflecting the continued reluctance to invest. Despite the gross profit margin improving to 60.1% (previous year: 58.8%), earnings performance was significantly impacted by exceptional expenses of around €4.0 million incurred as part of the “Project Performance” restructuring programme. In addition, Analysis Prime reported a net loss after tax of €2.0 million. Consequently, EBITDA fell significantly to €12.28 million (previous year: €17.26 million). However, the momentum during the year is to be viewed positively, as initial efficiency gains were already becoming apparent, particularly in the second half of the year. Depreciation and amortisation (including impairment losses on Analysis Prime’s customer base) further weighed on EBIT, which fell to €0.31 million (previous year: €7.38 million). Worth noting is the sharp rise in operating cash flow to €14.13 million (previous year: €10.34 million), which was used to significantly reduce bank debt. The basis for future development is a significantly increased order book (+15.3% to €93.5 million), a stronger focus on larger and higher-margin projects, and an optimised sales structure. In addition, structural trends such as cloud migration, rising recurring revenue and the growing importance of AI-supported solutions are providing further growth momentum. At the same time, management remains cautious due to external uncertainties and continued volatility in investment appetite. For the current financial year, CENIT AG anticipates revenue of at least €210 million and EBITDA of at least €18 million. Our estimates are slightly higher, and we expect revenue to rise to €214.74 million and a significant improvement in EBITDA to €19.13 million. For the following years, we anticipate accelerated revenue growth of 6% per annum and a gradual expansion of the EBITDA margin to over 10%. This will be driven by economies of scale, the elimination of one-off effects and efficiency gains. Management Change at CENIT AG: CEO Peter Schneck is stepping down from his position effective April 30, 2026, by mutual agreement with the Supervisory Board, after having played a key role since 2022 in driving the company’s international expansion and growth strategy (including eight acquisitions) as well as increasing revenue to €209.5 million. Effective May 1, 2026, Martin Thiel, the current COO, will assume the CEO position, ensuring continuity in the strategic realignment. At the same time, the company is placing greater emphasis on areas such as profitability, consolidation, and operational excellence, particularly in light of the planned transition to the Scale segment of the stock exchange. Using the DCF valuation model, we have determined a target price of €16.00 (previously: €15.00). We maintain our BUY rating. You can download the research here: 20260415_CENIT_Anno_engl Contact for questions: |
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