Ori­gi­nal-Re­se­arch: Ave­mio AG (von GBC AG): BUY

Ori­gi­nal-Re­se­arch: Ave­mio AG – from GBC AG

Clas­si­fi­ca­ti­on of GBC AG to Ave­mio AG

Com­pa­ny Name: Ave­mio AG
ISIN: DE000A2LQ1P6

Re­ason for the re­se­arch: Re­se­arch Com­ment
Re­com­men­da­ti­on: BUY
Tar­get pri­ce: 32.00 EUR
Tar­get pri­ce on sight of: 31.12.2024
Last ra­ting ch­an­ge:
Ana­lyst: Cos­min Fil­ker; Ni­klas Ripp­lin­ger

Sa­les and ear­nings for 2023 be­low ex­pec­ta­ti­ons, fo­re­casts and pri­ce tar­get re­du­ced, BUY ra­ting con­firm­ed

Ac­cor­ding to preli­mi­na­ry fi­gu­res for the past fi­nan­cial year, Ave­mio AG suf­fe­r­ed a de­cli­ne in sa­les to around € 103 mil­li­on (pre­vious year: € 108.7 mil­li­on), con­tra­ry to pre­vious­ly com­mu­ni­ca­ted ex­pec­ta­ti­ons. The com­pa­ny had pre­vious­ly ex­pec­ted sa­les of € 120 mil­li­on. The ex­pec­ted re­co­very in de­mand in the se­cond half of the year fai­led to ma­te­ria­li­se, pri­ma­ri­ly due to the per­sis­t­ent­ly weak eco­no­my. The tra­ding com­pa­nies VDH Vi­deo Data Han­dels GmbH and BPM Broad­cast & Pro­fes­sio­nal Me­dia GmbH were par­ti­cu­lar­ly af­fec­ted by this, while the tra­ding com­pa­ny Tel­tec AG re­cor­ded a ro­bust sa­les trend. In ad­di­ti­on to lower de­mand from con­su­mers (VDH) and for high-pri­ced equip­ment (BPM), the de­cli­ne in sa­les was also due to a lack of in­no­va­ti­on in the area of pro­fes­sio­nal film and te­le­vi­si­on tech­no­lo­gy. In ad­di­ti­on, many cus­to­mers had made in­vest­ments du­ring the co­ro­na­vi­rus pan­de­mic, which led to cer­tain pull-for­ward ef­fects for pre­vious ye­ars. De­spi­te the­se dif­fi­cul­ties, sa­les ex­cee­ded the € 100 mil­li­on mark for the third time in a row, alt­hough sa­les were si­gni­fi­cant­ly be­low our pre­vious ex­pec­ta­ti­ons (old GBC fo­re­cast: € 127.50 mil­li­on).

Ac­cor­ding to the com­pa­ny, the de­cli­ne in sa­les was com­poun­ded by pres­su­re on mar­gins due to mar­ket pri­ces, which led to a fall in the gross mar­gin. The preli­mi­na­ry EBITDA of around € 0.8 mil­li­on (pre­vious year: € 4.4 mil­li­on) is the­r­e­fo­re si­gni­fi­cant­ly be­low the pre­vious gui­dance and our fo­re­casts. The com­pa­ny had pre­vious­ly fo­re­cast EBITDA of € 5.0 mil­li­on, on the ba­sis of which we had fo­re­cast EBITDA of € 5.6 mil­li­on. EBITDA of € 1.0 mil­li­on in the first half of the year is the­r­e­fo­re off­set by ne­ga­ti­ve EBITDA of € ‑0.2 mil­li­on in the se­cond half of the year​.In the cor­po­ra­te news of 22 Ja­nu­ary 2014, Avemio’s ma­nage­ment em­pha­sis­ed the company’s con­tin­ued so­lid ca­pi­tal base. With equi­ty of € 12.5 mil­li­on (30.06.23: € 13.0 mil­li­on) and an equi­ty ra­tio of 35% (30.06.23: 37%), the com­pa­ny has cash and cash equi­va­lents of € 5.8 mil­li­on. In ad­di­ti­on, cre­dit li­nes to­tal­ling € 2.6 mil­li­on can be uti­li­sed and the­re is a com­mit­ment from the sta­te of Hes­se for mez­za­ni­ne fi­nan­cing in the amount of € 5 mil­li­on. This ca­pi­ta­li­sa­ti­on is in­ten­ded to fur­ther dri­ve M&A growth as one of the company’s most im­portant stra­te­gic pil­lars. A fur­ther com­pa­ny ac­qui­si­ti­on could be an­noun­ced in the first half of 2024.

We are ad­jus­ting our ori­gi­nal fo­re­cast for the past fi­nan­cial year in line with the preli­mi­na­ry fi­gu­res. Ba­sed on EBITDA of € 0.8 mil­li­on, we ex­pect ne­ga­ti­ve ear­nings af­ter ta­xes of around € ‑0.5 mil­li­on. Due to the lower start­ing po­si­ti­on, we are also re­du­cing our esti­ma­tes for the two fi­nan­cial ye­ars 2024 and 2025. Our esti­ma­tes still do not in­clude or­ga­nic growth, which is, ho­we­ver, an im­portant part of the cor­po­ra­te stra­tegy. Ba­sed on the fo­re­cast re­duc­tion, we have set a new tar­get pri­ce of €32.00. We con­ti­nue to as­sign a BUY ra­ting.

Die voll­stän­di­ge Ana­ly­se kön­nen Sie hier down­loa­den:
http://​www​.more​-ir​.de/​d​/​2​8​7​6​7​.​pdf

Kon­takt für Rück­fra­gen
GBC AG
Hal­der­stra­ße 27
86150 Augs­burg
⁰⁸²¹⁄₂₄₁₁₃₃ 0
research@​gbc-​ag.​de
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Dis­clo­sure of po­ten­ti­al con­flicts of in­te­rest pur­su­ant to Sec­tion 85 WpHG and Art. 20 MAR The com­pa­ny ana­ly­sed abo­ve has the fol­lo­wing po­ten­ti­al con­flict of in­te­rest: (5a,11); A ca­ta­lo­gue of po­ten­ti­al con­flicts of in­te­rest can be found at
https://​www​.gbc​-ag​.de/​d​e​/​O​f​f​e​n​l​e​g​ung
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Date (time) of com­ple­ti­on: 29/01/24 (9:33 am)
Date (time) first dis­tri­bu­ti­on: 29/01/24 (11:00 am)

——————-über­mit­telt durch die EQS Group AG.——————-

Für den In­halt der Mit­tei­lung bzw. Re­se­arch ist al­lei­ne der Her­aus­ge­ber bzw.
Er­stel­ler der Stu­die ver­ant­wort­lich. Die­se Mel­dung ist kei­ne An­la­ge­be­ra­tung
oder Auf­for­de­rung zum Ab­schluss be­stimm­ter Bör­sen­ge­schäf­te.