Ori­gi­nal-Re­se­arch: Ce­n­it AG (von GBC AG): BUY

Re­se­arch | 3 No­vem­ber 2023 00:00

Ori­gi­nal-Re­se­arch: Ce­n­it AG – from GBC AG

Clas­si­fi­ca­ti­on of GBC AG to Ce­n­it AG

Com­pa­ny Name: Ce­n­it AG
ISIN: DE0005407100

Re­ason for the re­se­arch: Re­se­arch Com­ment
Re­com­men­da­ti­on: BUY
Tar­get pri­ce: EUR 20.90
Tar­get pri­ce on sight of: 31.12.2024
Last ra­ting ch­an­ge:
Ana­lyst: Cos­min Fil­ker, Mar­cel Gold­mann

9 months 2023: Th­ree more com­pa­nies ac­qui­red in 2023; High re­ve­nue and ear­nings growth achie­ved; Slight fo­re­cast and pri­ce tar­get ad­jus­t­ment; Ra­ting: BUY

In the third quar­ter of 2023, CENIT AG achie­ved sa­les growth of 9.3% to € 45.84 mil­li­on (Q3 2022: € 41.95 mil­li­on), thus seam­less­ly con­ti­nuing the pre­vious de­ve­lo­p­ment of the cur­rent busi­ness year 2023. In the first two quar­ters, an in­crease in tur­no­ver of 22.7% (Q1) and 14.4% (Q2) was achie­ved. In to­tal, sa­les re­ve­nues of € 133.31 mil­li­on (pre­vious year: € 115.86 mil­li­on) were achie­ved in the first nine months, which cor­re­sponds to an in­crease of 15.1% com­pared to the pre­vious year. A ma­jor growth dri­ver was the con­ti­nua­tion of in­or­ga­nic growth, which was ad­van­ced in the cur­rent fi­nan­cial year by the ac­qui­si­ti­ons of mip Ma­nage­ment In­for­ma­ti­ons Part­ner GmbH, PI In­for­ma­tik GmbH and ACTIVE BUSINESS CONSULT. ISR In­for­ma­ti­ons Pro­ducts AG was al­re­a­dy ac­qui­red in the pre­vious fi­nan­cial year 2022, which was only con­so­li­da­ted from 31 May 2022, so that the­re is also a base ef­fect here. Over­all, the in­or­ga­nic con­tri­bu­ti­on to growth is li­kely to have been around 14.00 mil­li­on eu­ros ac­cor­ding to our cal­cu­la­ti­ons, which me­ans or­ga­nic growth in tur­no­ver of around 3.0%.

The strong sa­les growth of 9.3% was ac­com­pa­nied by a dis­pro­por­tio­na­te in­crease in EBIT of 78.1% to € 4.60 mil­li­on (pre­vious year: € 2.58 mil­li­on). Alt­hough the EBIT was po­si­tively in­fluen­ced by a one-time gain of € 0.87 mil­li­on from the sale of the sub­si­dia­ry CENIT Ja­pan K.K., the com­pa­ny would have achie­ved an EBIT in­crease of 44.6 % to € 3.73 mil­li­on even wi­t­hout this ef­fect. On the one hand, the hig­her EBIT mar­gin of the ac­qui­red com­pa­nies is li­kely to have had a po­si­ti­ve ef­fect. On the other hand, the Si­ri­us cost-cut­ting pro­gram­me that has been in­tro­du­ced is also li­kely to have made a po­si­ti­ve con­tri­bu­ti­on to ear­nings.

CENIT AG plans to con­ti­nue the high M&A ac­ti­vi­ty of the last quar­ters. In this con­text, the com­pa­ny has res­truc­tu­red its bank lia­bi­li­ties and ta­ken out a new loan of € 40.00 mil­li­on. With this loan, the exis­ting loan of € 22.66 mil­li­on was re­paid. Sin­ce the ac­qui­si­ti­ons of the cur­rent fi­nan­cial year were fi­nan­ced from the ope­ra­ting cash flow, the bor­ro­wing less the di­vi­dend dis­tri­bu­ti­on (€ 4.18 mil­li­on) and the re­pay­ment of lea­sing lia­bi­li­ties (€ 2.83 mil­li­on) led to an in­crease in li­quid funds to € 30.07 mil­li­on (31.12.22: € 19.91 mil­li­on). The com­pa­ny thus has suf­fi­ci­ent fi­nan­cial lee­way to op­por­tu­ni­sti­cal­ly ac­qui­re fur­ther com­pa­nies.

With the pu­bli­ca­ti­on of the nine-month fi­gu­res, CENIT’s ma­nage­ment has
con­firm­ed the fo­re­cast for the cur­rent busi­ness year. Sa­les of around € 180 mil­li­on and an EBIT of around € 9.5 mil­li­on are still ex­pec­ted. Ba­sed on the fi­gu­res achie­ved in the first nine months, sa­les of around € 46.70 mil­li­on and an EBIT of around € 4.90 mil­li­on are ex­pec­ted for the fourth quar­ter. While tur­no­ver is ex­pec­ted to re­main at about the same le­vel as in the fourth quar­ter of the pre­vious year, EBIT should im­pro­ve si­gni­fi­cant­ly com­pared to the same pe­ri­od of the pre­vious year.

An in­crease in EBIT in the fourth quar­ter should be pri­ma­ri­ly re­la­ted to an ex­pec­ted rise in high-mar­gin pro­prie­ta­ry soft­ware sa­les. Ac­cor­ding to the com­pa­ny, the­re were post­po­ne­ments of or­ders, which could, ho­we­ver, still be rea­li­sed in the cur­rent fi­nan­cial year. The af­fec­ted or­der vo­lu­me amounts to ap­pro­xi­m­ate­ly € 1.5 mil­li­on. In ad­di­ti­on, the po­si­ti­ve ef­fect from the de­con­so­li­da­ti­on of the Ja­pa­ne­se sub­si­dia­ry should also make a slight­ly po­si­ti­ve EBIT con­tri­bu­ti­on in the fourth quar­ter. In ad­di­ti­on, the sa­vings ef­fects from the Si­ri­us pro­gram­me should also in­crease ear­nings.

While we are kee­ping our re­ve­nue fo­re­cast un­ch­an­ged, we are ad­jus­ting our EBIT esti­ma­te slight­ly to € 9.55 mil­li­on (pre­vious­ly: € 9.80 mil­li­on). Ho­we­ver, we are ta­king into ac­count the new loan of € 40 mil­li­on in our esti­ma­tes for the first time, which will lead to hig­her in­te­rest ex­pen­ses. In par­ti­cu­lar, this leads to an ad­jus­t­ment of our esti­ma­ted af­ter-tax re­sults for the fi­nan­cial ye­ars 2024 and 2025, while we lea­ve both the re­ve­nue and ear­nings esti­ma­tes for the­se esti­ma­ti­on pe­ri­ods un­ch­an­ged. Alt­hough the funds rai­sed are to be used for the im­ple­men­ta­ti­on of fur­ther M&A ac­ti­vi­ties, we have not yet in­cluded them in our fo­re­casts be­cau­se they have yet to be rea­li­sed. Ac­cor­ding to com­pa­ny in­for­ma­ti­on, an ac­qui­si­ti­on is very li­kely in 2023. In ad­di­ti­on, the­re is curr­ent­ly an ex­ten­si­ve M&A pipe­line which, if ful­ly rea­li­sed, would in­crease tur­no­ver by around € 70 mil­li­on.

Due to the slight ad­jus­t­ment of the EBIT for 2023 as well as the con­side­ra­ti­on of hig­her in­te­rest ex­pen­ses in con­nec­tion with the ex­ten­si­ve bor­ro­wing, our pri­ce tar­get de­ter­mi­ned wi­thin the frame­work of the DCF mo­del is only slight­ly re­du­ced to € 20.90 (pre­vious­ly: € 21.00). We con­ti­nue to as­sign the BUY ra­ting.

Die voll­stän­di­ge Ana­ly­se kön­nen Sie hier down­loa­den:

Kon­takt für Rück­fra­gen
Of­fen­le­gung mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sens­kon­flik­te nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben ana­ly­sier­ten Un­ter­neh­men ist fol­gen­der mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sen­kon­flikt ge­ge­ben: (5a,6a,7,11); Ei­nen Ka­ta­log mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sen­kon­flik­te fin­den Sie un­ter:
Date (time) of com­ple­ti­on: 03/11/23 (09:18 am)
Date (Time) first dis­tri­bu­ti­on: 03/11/23 (10:30 am)

——————-über­mit­telt durch die EQS Group AG.——————-

Für den In­halt der Mit­tei­lung bzw. Re­se­arch ist al­lei­ne der Her­aus­ge­ber bzw.
Er­stel­ler der Stu­die ver­ant­wort­lich. Die­se Mel­dung ist kei­ne An­la­ge­be­ra­tung
oder Auf­for­de­rung zum Ab­schluss be­stimm­ter Bör­sen­ge­schäf­te.



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86150 Augs­burg

Pho­ne: +49 821 241133–0
E‑mail: office(@)gbc-ag.de

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