Ori­gi­nal-Re­se­arch: ELARIS AG (von ELARIS AG)

Re­se­arch | 19 März 2024 00:00

Ori­gi­nal-Re­se­arch: ELARIS AG – from GBC AG­Clas­si­fi­ca­ti­on of GBC AG to ELARIS AG

Com­pa­ny Name: ELARIS AG
ISIN: DE000A37FT17

Re­ason for the re­se­arch: Re­se­arch stu­dy (IPO stu­dy)
Tar­get pri­ce: 47.55 EUR
Last ra­ting ch­an­ge:
Ana­lyst: Mar­cel Gold­mann, Cos­min Fil­ker

Elec­tri­fi­ca­ti­on of German/European vo­lu­me seg­ments th­rough di­rect sa­les and di­gi­tal­ly-sup­port­ed part­ner net­work sa­les of ful­ly elec­tric cars; Mar­ke­ting of pure elec­tric cars un­der the Ger­man ELARIS brand com­bi­ned with a full-ser­vice of­fe­ring with a fo­cus on pri­va­te and cor­po­ra­te cus­to­mers; The in­creased ex­pan­si­on of the e‑mobility busi­ness via a high­ly sca­lable di­gi­tal sa­les and ser­vice plat­form opens up con­sidera­ble growth and ear­nings po­ten­ti­al; Fair va­lue per share: € 47.55

ELARIS AG (ELARIS) is a Ger­man com­pa­ny and a pro­vi­der of ful­ly elec­tric e‑vehicles and re­la­ted busi­ness are­as (spa­re parts and ser­vice busi­ness, e‑charging sta­ti­on busi­ness, etc.) in the up-and-co­ming and fast-gro­wing e‑mobility sec­tor. As a re­sult of the trans­port and mo­bi­li­ty tran­si­ti­on in­itia­ted in the EU as a who­le and in Ger­ma­ny spe­ci­fi­cal­ly, which in­cludes an EU ban on com­bus­ti­on en­gi­nes from 2035, au­to­mo­ti­ve ex­perts ex­pect that fu­ture in­di­vi­du­al mo­bi­li­ty will be stron­gly cha­rac­te­ri­sed by bat­tery-powered elec­tric cars so that Ger­ma­ny and the EU can achie­ve their en­vi­ron­men­tal and cli­ma­te po­li­cy goals (key­word: long-term cli­ma­te neu­tra­li­ty). As part of its po­li­ti­cal ori­en­ta­ti­on, the cur­rent co­ali­ti­on is ai­ming for 15 mil­li­on elec­tric ve­hic­les on Ger­man roads by 2030. Ac­cor­ding to the Fe­de­ral Mo­tor Trans­port Aut­ho­ri­ty (KBA), 524,219 elec­tric cars were re­gis­tered in 2023, a si­gni­fi­cant in­crease of 11.4% com­pared to the pre­vious year (470,559) and a new re­cord. At the same time, the share of elec­tric cars in to­tal re­gis­tra­ti­ons in­creased to 18.4% (pre­vious year: 17.7%).

The ELARIS Group con­tin­ued its growth tra­jec­to­ry in the 2022 fi­nan­cial year
with a si­gni­fi­cant in­crease in sa­les of 241.6% to € 3.04 mil­li­on (PY: € 0.89 mil­li­on). The com­pa­ny was also able to con­ti­nue this cle­ar­ly po­si­ti­ve sa­les trend in the first ten months of the 2023 fi­nan­cial year, ge­ne­ra­ting sa­les of € 9.39 mil­li­on (31 Oc­to­ber 2022: € 2.29 mil­li­on). The sa­les growth achie­ved was pri­ma­ri­ly due to a si­gni­fi­cant in­crease in the sa­les vo­lu­me of e‑cars.

At the ope­ra­ting re­sult le­vel (EBITDA), a ne­ga­ti­ve re­sult of € ‑3.14 mil­li­on was achie­ved in the 2022 fi­nan­cial year due to high in­vest­ments in the de­ve­lo­p­ment and ex­pan­si­on of the e‑mobility busi­ness, which was the­r­e­fo­re be­low the PY’s le­vel (PY: € ‑1.14 mil­li­on). Ho­we­ver, it should be no­ted at this point that the pre­vious year’s re­sult was in­fluen­ced by cle­ar­ly po­si­ti­ve ex­tra­or­di­na­ry in­co­me (€ 2.02 mil­li­on). EBITDA of € ‑1.66 mil­li­on was ge­ne­ra­ted in the first ten months of the 2023 fi­nan­cial year (31 Oc­to­ber 2022: € ‑4.28 mil­li­on).

We an­ti­ci­pa­te a mas­si­ve ac­ce­le­ra­ti­on in growth in fu­ture fi­nan­cial ye­ars. The fur­ther ex­pan­si­on of the pro­duct port­fo­lio and the sa­les and ser­vice part­ner net­work as well as in­creased mar­ke­ting me­a­su­res should pro­ve to be the main growth dri­vers for this. Ad­di­tio­nal growth im­pe­tus should also re­sult from the de­ve­lo­p­ment of com­ple­men­ta­ry busi­ness are­as (spa­re parts and char­ging in­fra­struc­tu­re busi­ness, etc.) and from the de­ve­lo­p­ment of new mar­kets out­side Ger­ma­ny, which we have not ta­ken into ac­count in our con­ser­va­ti­ve fo­re­casts and which the­r­e­fo­re open up (fur­ther) si­gni­fi­cant up­si­de and va­lue enhance­ment po­ten­ti­al.

For the past fi­nan­cial year 2023, we spe­ci­fi­cal­ly ex­pect a jump in sa­les com­pared to the pre­vious year to € 13.46 mil­li­on (PY: € 3.04 mil­li­on) and an ope­ra­ting re­sult (EBITDA) of € ‑3.81 mil­li­on (PY: € ‑3.14 mil­li­on). For the co­ming ye­ars 2024 and 2025, we an­ti­ci­pa­te a mas­si­ve in­crease in sa­les (EBITDA) to € 130.26 mil­li­on (€ 10.78 mil­li­on) in 2024e and € 256.69 mil­li­on (€ 30.57 mil­li­on) in 2025e ba­sed on our ex­pec­ted dy­na­mic sales/growth de­ve­lo­p­ment and the on­set of eco­no­mies of sca­le. For the fol­lo­wing year 2026, we an­ti­ci­pa­te a fur­ther in­crease in sa­les and EBITDA to € 388.02 mil­li­on and € 60.19 mil­li­on re­spec­tively. At the same time, the EBITDA mar­gin should gra­du­al­ly in­crease si­gni­fi­cant­ly from the ex­pec­ted 8.3% in 2024 to 15.5% in 2026.

Over­all, we be­lie­ve that the ELARIS Group, with its at­trac­ti­ve pro­duct port­fo­lio, ex­ten­si­ve net­work of sa­les and ser­vice part­ners and dis­rup­ti­ve sa­les ap­proach (com­bi­na­ti­on of on­line sa­les and sta­tio­na­ry sa­les), is well po­si­tio­ned to be­ne­fit si­gni­fi­cant­ly from the fur­ther ramp-up of e‑mobility in the Ger­man au­to­mo­ti­ve mar­ket. The company’s ramp-up and high­ly sca­lable busi­ness mo­del should enable it to achie­ve dis­pro­por­tio­na­te­ly high ear­nings growth and a sharp rise in pro­fi­ta­bi­li­ty in par­al­lel with the ex­pec­ted dy­na­mic sa­les growth.

As part of our DCF mo­del, we have cal­cu­la­ted a fair com­pa­ny va­lue of € 47.55 per share at the end of the 2024 fi­nan­cial year ba­sed on our esti­ma­tes.

You can down­load the re­se­arch here:

Cont­act for ques­ti­ons
Hal­der­stra­ße 27
86150 Augs­burg
0821241133 0
Of­fen­le­gung mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sens­kon­flik­te nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben ana­ly­sier­ten Un­ter­neh­men ist fol­gen­der mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sen­kon­flikt ge­ge­ben: (5a,6a,11); Ei­nen Ka­ta­log mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sen­kon­flik­te fin­den Sie un­ter: http://​www​.gbc​-ag​.de/​d​e​/​O​f​f​e​n​l​e​g​ung
Date and time of com­ple­ti­on of the stu­dy: 12/03/2024(18:05 pm)
Date and time of first dis­tri­bu­ti­on: 12/03/2024(18:10 pm)

——————-trans­mit­ted by EQS Group AG.——————-

The is­suer is so­le­ly re­spon­si­ble for the con­tent of this re­se­arch.
The re­sult of this re­se­arch does not con­sti­tu­te in­vest­ment ad­vice
or an in­vi­ta­ti­on to con­clude cer­tain stock ex­ch­an­ge tran­sac­tions.



Hal­der­stra­ße 27
86150 Augs­burg

Pho­ne: +49 821 241133–0
E‑mail: office(@)gbc-ag.de

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