Original-Research: ELARIS AG (von ELARIS AG)

Research | 19 März 2024 00:00

Original-Research: ELARIS AG – from GBC AGClassification of GBC AG to ELARIS AG

Company Name: ELARIS AG
ISIN: DE000A37FT17

Reason for the research: Research study (IPO study)
Target price: 47.55 EUR
Last rating change:
Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker

Electrification of German/European volume segments through direct sales and digitally-supported partner network sales of fully electric cars; Marketing of pure electric cars under the German ELARIS brand combined with a full-service offering with a focus on private and corporate customers; The increased expansion of the e‑mobility business via a highly scalable digital sales and service platform opens up considerable growth and earnings potential; Fair value per share: € 47.55

ELARIS AG (ELARIS) is a German company and a provider of fully electric e‑vehicles and related business areas (spare parts and service business, e‑charging station business, etc.) in the up-and-coming and fast-growing e‑mobility sector. As a result of the transport and mobility transition initiated in the EU as a whole and in Germany specifically, which includes an EU ban on combustion engines from 2035, automotive experts expect that future individual mobility will be strongly characterised by battery-powered electric cars so that Germany and the EU can achieve their environmental and climate policy goals (keyword: long-term climate neutrality). As part of its political orientation, the current coalition is aiming for 15 million electric vehicles on German roads by 2030. According to the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA), 524,219 electric cars were registered in 2023, a significant increase of 11.4% compared to the previous year (470,559) and a new record. At the same time, the share of electric cars in total registrations increased to 18.4% (previous year: 17.7%).

The ELARIS Group continued its growth trajectory in the 2022 financial year
with a significant increase in sales of 241.6% to € 3.04 million (PY: € 0.89 million). The company was also able to continue this clearly positive sales trend in the first ten months of the 2023 financial year, generating sales of € 9.39 million (31 October 2022: € 2.29 million). The sales growth achieved was primarily due to a significant increase in the sales volume of e‑cars.

At the operating result level (EBITDA), a negative result of € ‑3.14 million was achieved in the 2022 financial year due to high investments in the development and expansion of the e‑mobility business, which was therefore below the PY’s level (PY: € ‑1.14 million). However, it should be noted at this point that the previous year’s result was influenced by clearly positive extraordinary income (€ 2.02 million). EBITDA of € ‑1.66 million was generated in the first ten months of the 2023 financial year (31 October 2022: € ‑4.28 million).

We anticipate a massive acceleration in growth in future financial years. The further expansion of the product portfolio and the sales and service partner network as well as increased marketing measures should prove to be the main growth drivers for this. Additional growth impetus should also result from the development of complementary business areas (spare parts and charging infrastructure business, etc.) and from the development of new markets outside Germany, which we have not taken into account in our conservative forecasts and which therefore open up (further) significant upside and value enhancement potential.

For the past financial year 2023, we specifically expect a jump in sales compared to the previous year to € 13.46 million (PY: € 3.04 million) and an operating result (EBITDA) of € ‑3.81 million (PY: € ‑3.14 million). For the coming years 2024 and 2025, we anticipate a massive increase in sales (EBITDA) to € 130.26 million (€ 10.78 million) in 2024e and € 256.69 million (€ 30.57 million) in 2025e based on our expected dynamic sales/growth development and the onset of economies of scale. For the following year 2026, we anticipate a further increase in sales and EBITDA to € 388.02 million and € 60.19 million respectively. At the same time, the EBITDA margin should gradually increase significantly from the expected 8.3% in 2024 to 15.5% in 2026.

Overall, we believe that the ELARIS Group, with its attractive product portfolio, extensive network of sales and service partners and disruptive sales approach (combination of online sales and stationary sales), is well positioned to benefit significantly from the further ramp-up of e‑mobility in the German automotive market. The company’s ramp-up and highly scalable business model should enable it to achieve disproportionately high earnings growth and a sharp rise in profitability in parallel with the expected dynamic sales growth.

As part of our DCF model, we have calculated a fair company value of € 47.55 per share at the end of the 2024 financial year based on our estimates.

You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29187.pdf

Contact for questions
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
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research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date and time of completion of the study: 12/03/2024(18:05 pm)
Date and time of first distribution: 12/03/2024(18:10 pm)

——————-transmitted by EQS Group AG.——————-

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.