Ori­gi­nal-Re­se­arch: He­alth Ita­lia S.p.A. (von GBC AG): BUY

Ori­gi­nal-Re­se­arch: He­alth Ita­lia S.p.A. – from GBC AG

Clas­si­fi­ca­ti­on of GBC AG to He­alth Ita­lia S.p.A.

Com­pa­ny Name: He­alth Ita­lia S.p.A.
ISIN: IT0005221004

Re­ason for the rease­arch: Re­se­arch Re­port (Note)
Re­com­men­da­ti­on: BUY
Tar­get pri­ce: 4.00 EUR
Tar­get pri­ce on sight of: 31.12.2024
Last ra­ting ch­an­ge:
Ana­lyst: Mat­thi­as Greif­fen­ber­ger, Mar­cel Schaf­fer

Good first half-year. The fo­cus on the core busi­ness mo­del is pay­ing off. Fo­re­cast con­firm­ed.

In the first half of 2023, re­ve­nues amoun­ted to €17.81 mil­li­on, si­gnal­ing a slight 7.5% de­cli­ne com­pared to the same pe­ri­od in the pre­vious year of €19.25 mil­li­on. This de­cli­ne is pri­ma­ri­ly as­so­cia­ted with the im­pact of the ‚dis­con­tin­ued ope­ra­ti­ons‘ of Be He­alth S.p.A. and He­alth Pro­per­ty S.p.A., which re­pre­sent the two seg­ments Nut­raceu­ti­cal and Real Es­tate.

The core seg­ment of pro­mo­ti­on and ser­vices (‚Ser­vi­zi He­alth Care‘) ex­pe­ri­en­ced a ro­bust growth of 6.9%, rea­ching €11.16 mil­li­on (PY: €10.44 mil­li­on). Me­an­while, the cus­to­mer sup­port seg­ment (‚Sup­port He­alth Care‘) ex­hi­bi­ted sub­stan­ti­al growth, in­cre­asing by 10.0% to €1.93 mil­li­on (PY: €1.75 mil­li­on). This shows that the in­tro­duc­tion of a mul­ti-chan­nel dis­tri­bu­ti­on mo­del, cou­pled with con­ti­nuous in­vest­ments in tech­no­lo­gi­cal ad­vance­ments, no­ta­b­ly wi­thin the he­alth­ca­re and te­le­me­di­ci­ne sec­tor, has been in­stru­men­tal in dri­ving the no­te­wor­t­hy re­sults achie­ved over the in­iti­al six months of the year. Ho­we­ver, the he­alth be­ne­fits seg­ment (‚Ser­vi­zi Sa­ni­ta­ri‘) saw a no­ta­ble de­cli­ne of 23.3%, amoun­ting to €4.72 mil­li­on (PY: €6.15 mil­li­on). The drop in re­ve­nues for this seg­ment can be lar­ge­ly at­tri­bu­ted to ac­coun­ting pe­ri­ods, and we an­ti­ci­pa­te that growth will sta­bi­li­ze and nor­ma­li­ze over the cour­se of the en­ti­re year.

In terms of cost ma­nage­ment, the com­pa­ny has shown si­gni­fi­cant im­pro­ve­ments in va­rious key ca­te­go­ries. Cos­ts for ser­vices ex­pe­ri­en­ced a no­ta­ble de­crease, mo­ving from €-13.07 mil­li­on eu­ros to €-12.05 mil­li­on, which amounts to rough­ly 7.81% in cost sa­vings. Staff cos­ts also saw a si­gni­fi­cant re­duc­tion of ap­pro­xi­m­ate­ly 13.47%, de­cli­ning from €-2.64 mil­li­on to €-2.29 mil­li­on. This cost-sa­ving was at­tri­bu­ted main­ly to out­sour­cing of IT ser­vices.

The ad­jus­ted EBITDA, stan­ding at €3.27 mil­li­on, ex­pe­ri­en­ced a slight in­crease of 2.7% com­pared to the gross ope­ra­ting mar­gin in the first half of the pre­ce­ding year (€3.18 mil­li­on). The ad­jus­ted EBITDA mar­gin now stands at 18.4% of net re­ve­nues, which si­gni­fies a growth of ap­pro­xi­m­ate­ly 2 per­cen­ta­ge points when com­pared to the first half of 2022 (16.5%). This com­men­da­ble re­sult is an out­co­me of in­creased mar­gins wi­thin the core busi­ness and the ef­fec­ti­ve cost-sa­ving me­a­su­res im­ple­men­ted by the Group. The ad­jus­t­ment to EBITDA is prompt­ed by the fact that the­se ef­fects do not stem from re­gu­lar busi­ness ope­ra­ti­ons and are is­sues ex­pec­ted to be mi­ti­ga­ted in the me­di­um term. The one-time im­pact is pri­ma­ri­ly as­so­cia­ted with the ac­qui­si­ti­on of real es­tate in con­nec­tion with an NPL deal.

The un­ad­jus­ted EBITDA, en­com­pas­sing va­rious mis­cel­la­neous cos­ts and char­ges (‚Altri cos­ti e one­ri di­ver­si‘) and other in­co­me (“Altri Ri­ca­vi e Pro­ven­ti di­ver­si”), con­trac­ted by 37.8%, rea­ching €2.87 mil­li­on com­pared to the pri­or year’s €4.61 mil­li­on. This re­duc­tion led to a de­crease in the EBITDA mar­gin, which now stands at 16.1% as op­po­sed to the pre­vious year’s 24.0%. This va­ri­ance is pri­ma­ri­ly at­tri­bu­ted to an ex­tra­or­di­na­ry gain stem­ming from a real es­tate tran­sac­tion in 2022.

The net re­sult for the pe­ri­od in­di­ca­tes a pro­fit of €1.52 mil­li­on, in con­trast to the same pe­ri­od in 2022 when a pro­fit of €2.29 mil­li­on was re­cor­ded.

In the first half of 2023, the Group con­tin­ued its suc­cessful jour­ney, achie­ving po­si­ti­ve re­sults, no­ta­b­ly in pro­fi­ta­bi­li­ty. Their com­mit­ment to a mul­ti-chan­nel dis­tri­bu­ti­on mo­del, on­go­ing tech­no­lo­gi­cal in­no­va­ti­on, stream­li­ned core ac­ti­vi­ties, and cost con­trol re­main­ed un­wa­ve­ring. Re­gar­ding the nut­raceu­ti­cal seg­ment, He­alth Ita­lia has cho­sen to dis­con­ti­nue its di­rect ma­nage­ment of this seg­ment in or­der to re­fo­cus on its core busi­nesses, main­tai­ning an in­di­rect in­vol­vement th­rough equi­ty par­ti­ci­pa­ti­on. As part of this de­cis­i­on, Be He­alth has ap­pro­ved a ca­pi­tal in­crease, re­sul­ting in a di­lu­ti­on of He­alth Italia’s ow­ner­ship to less than 50%. Fur­ther­mo­re, He­alth Ita­lia is proac­tively in­ves­t­ing in the enhance­ment of their di­gi­tal plat­forms, pa­ving the way for si­gni­fi­cant im­pro­ve­ments in ser­vice qua­li­ty and ope­ra­tio­nal ef­fi­ci­en­cy. The­se in-house plat­forms are poi­sed to stream­li­ne work­flows, ul­ti­m­ate­ly bols­te­ring ope­ra­tio­nal
ef­fec­ti­ve­ness.

Mo­reo­ver, He­alth Ita­lia is pur­suing an ex­pan­si­on of its sa­les and dis­tri­bu­ti­on mo­del. Le­ver­aging its exis­ting sa­les chan­nels, in­clu­ding ban­king and ex­ter­nal net­works, the com­pa­ny is now keen to broa­den its mar­ket reach by in­tro­du­cing an on­line sa­les chan­nel. This mul­ti-pron­ged ap­proach will di­ver­si­fy their cus­to­mer base, ma­king their ser­vices ac­ces­si­ble to a broa­der cli­ente­le.

This stra­te­gic rea­lignment, gui­ded by He­alth Italia’s core com­pe­ten­ci­es and mar­ket de­mands, po­si­ti­ons the com­pa­ny for sub­stan­ti­al growth in the ye­ars
head. It un­ders­cores their ad­ap­ta­bi­li­ty and un­wa­ve­ring com­mit­ment to lea­ding the he­alth­ca­re sec­tor by evol­ving to meet the dy­na­mic needs of their cli­ents.

He­alth Ita­lia S.p.A.’s gui­dance for 2023–2026 cen­ters on rein­for­cing its fi­nan­cial struc­tu­re and op­ti­mi­zing key per­for­mance in­di­ca­tors. This gui­dance ali­gns with the group’s ESG prin­ci­ples and em­pha­si­zes re­invest­ment, cost-sa­ving, and sus­taina­bi­li­ty. By 2026, He­alth Ita­lia aims to achie­ve re­ve­nues ran­ging from €50.0 to €52.0 mil­li­on, an EBITDA wi­thin the €12.0 to €14.0 mil­li­on ran­ge, and a po­si­ti­ve net fi­nan­cial po­si­ti­on.

The half-year re­sults af­firm that our fo­re­cast is on track, and we re­af­firm our con­fi­dence in it. Due to the company’s stra­te­gic shift towards core busi­ness ope­ra­ti­ons, lea­ding to exits from the nut­raceu­ti­cal and real es­tate sec­tors, we an­ti­ci­pa­te a slight de­cli­ne in re­ve­nue for 2023 at €38.2 mil­li­on. As the com­pa­ny re­fo­cu­ses so­le­ly on its core busi­ness in the sub­se­quent year, we an­ti­ci­pa­te a growth of 8.6%, re­sul­ting in esti­ma­ted re­ve­nues of €41.58 mil­li­on in the year 2024. Our pro­jec­tions are con­sis­tent with the company’s gui­dance, an­ti­ci­pa­ting a fair­ly sta­ble growth tra­jec­to­ry. In our dis­coun­ted cash flow (DCF) mo­del, we fo­re­cast re­ve­nues rea­ching €50.31 mil­li­on and an EBITDA of €13.12 mil­li­on by 2026.

As the com­pa­ny re­news its fo­cus on its core busi­ness, we an­ti­ci­pa­te a con­sis­tent ups­wing in pro­fit mar­gins. No­ta­b­ly, the pro­mo­tio­nal and ser­vice seg­ment, al­re­a­dy re­co­gni­zed for its high mar­gins, has de­mons­tra­ted even stron­ger pro­fi­ta­bi­li­ty in the past. We be­lie­ve that the re­vi­sed stra­tegy will em­power the ma­nage­ment to pro­gres­si­ve­ly re­gain and po­ten­ti­al­ly sur­pass their pre­vious le­vels of suc­cess. For 2023, we fo­re­see an EBITDA of €6.58 mil­li­on, re­flec­ting an EBITDA mar­gin of 17.2%. Fur­ther­mo­re, we pre­dict a ste­ady rise in EBITDA and mar­gin in the en­suing ye­ars. Our pro­jec­tions in­di­ca­te an EBITDA of €7.77 mil­li­on and an EBITDA mar­gin of 18.7% for 2024.

The fi­nan­cial char­ges are ex­pec­ted to de­crease due to the re­pay­ment of the con­ver­ti­ble bond. We also pro­ject a gra­du­al de­crease in the company’s fi­nan­cial ob­li­ga­ti­ons over the ye­ars. Con­se­quent­ly, we an­ti­ci­pa­te that the net re­sult will fol­low a tra­jec­to­ry si­mi­lar to EBITDA, al­beit with more pro­no­un­ced mar­gin im­pro­ve­ments. Af­ter achie­ving a net re­sult of €3.7 mil­li­on in 2022, we ex­pect fi­gu­res of €3.07 mil­li­on in 2023 and €4.04 mil­li­on in 2024.

We main­tain our con­fi­dence in the fo­re­cast and va­lua­ti­on, con­se­quent­ly rei­te­ra­ting our tar­get pri­ce of €4.00 and a Buy ra­ting.

Die voll­stän­di­ge Ana­ly­se kön­nen Sie hier down­loa­den:
http://​www​.more​-ir​.de/​d​/​2​8​1​6​3​.​pdf

Kon­takt für Rück­fra­gen
GBC AG
Hal­der­stra­ße 27
86150 Augs­burg
⁰⁸²¹⁄₂₄₁₁₃₃ 0
research@​gbc-​ag.​de
++++++++++++++++
Of­fen­le­gung mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sens­kon­flik­te nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben ana­ly­sier­ten Un­ter­neh­men ist fol­gen­der mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sen­kon­flikt ge­ge­ben: (5a,6a,11); Ei­nen Ka­ta­log mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sen­kon­flik­te fin­den Sie un­ter:
http://​www​.gbc​-ag​.de/​d​e​/​O​f​f​e​n​l​e​g​ung
+++++++++++++++
Date and time of com­ple­ti­on of the re­se­arch re­port: 09.11.2023 (10:00)
Date and time of the first dis­clo­sure of the re­se­arch re­port: 09.11.2023 (12:00)

——————-über­mit­telt durch die EQS Group AG.——————-

Für den In­halt der Mit­tei­lung bzw. Re­se­arch ist al­lei­ne der Her­aus­ge­ber bzw.
Er­stel­ler der Stu­die ver­ant­wort­lich. Die­se Mel­dung ist kei­ne An­la­ge­be­ra­tung
oder Auf­for­de­rung zum Ab­schluss be­stimm­ter Bör­sen­ge­schäf­te.