Ori­gi­nal-Re­se­arch: Mex­e­dia S.p.a. SB (von GBC AG): Buy

Clas­si­fi­ca­ti­on of GBC AG to Mex­e­dia S.p.a. SB

Mex­e­dia Re­boo­ted: Who­le­sa­le Nor­ma­liza­ti­on and Re­turn to Pro­fi­ta­bi­li­ty from 2026

Mex­e­dia S.p.A. So­cie­tà Be­ne­fit ope­ra­tes as an in­ter­na­tio­nal who­le­sa­le te­le­com­mu­ni­ca­ti­ons pro­vi­der fo­cu­sed on glo­bal voice and SMS ter­mi­na­ti­on ser­vices. The com­pa­ny rou­tes traf­fic for te­le­com car­ri­ers, VoIP ope­ra­tors, and mes­sa­ging ag­gre­ga­tors th­rough its in­ter­con­nec­tion net­work, com­bi­ning rou­ting ex­per­ti­se with long-stan­ding sup­pli­er re­la­ti­onships to se­cu­re com­pe­ti­ti­ve and re­lia­ble ter­mi­na­ti­on ca­pa­ci­ty.

Af­ter the dis­rup­ti­on in 2024 lin­ked to working-ca­pi­tal cons­traints and the re­sul­ting traf­fic con­trac­tion, Mex­e­dia has re-es­tab­lished com­mer­cial con­ti­nui­ty and re­built the ope­ra­tio­nal ca­pa­ci­ty re­qui­red to sup­port core who­le­sa­le vo­lu­mes. The sharp re­bound in the first half of 2025 in­di­ca­tes that un­der­ly­ing busi­ness fun­da­men­tals re­main int­act; ho­we­ver, 2025 should still be view­ed as a tran­si­ti­on year. De­spi­te the ope­ra­tio­nal re­co­very, we fo­re­cast that the Group will re­main cle­ar­ly loss-ma­king at the net le­vel in FY2025, with a net loss of €12m, re­flec­ting the lag ef­fect of 2024, ele­va­ted fi­nan­cial cos­ts, and the time re­qui­red for full traf­fic nor­ma­liza­ti­on.

Stra­te­gi­cal­ly, Mexedia’s fo­cus is firm­ly cen­te­red on its core who­le­sa­le car­ri­er busi­ness, whe­re the Group be­ne­fits from in­ter­na­tio­nal reach, di­ver­si­fied in­ter­con­nec­tions, and spe­cia­li­zed rou­ting ca­pa­bi­li­ties. Management’s prio­ri­ties are di­rec­ted toward res­to­ring sus­tainable cash ge­ne­ra­ti­on, streng­thening fi­nan­cial di­sci­pli­ne, and im­pro­ving ope­ra­ting le­vera­ge as traf­fic vo­lu­mes nor­ma­li­ze. While the Group con­ti­nues to mo­ni­tor sel­ec­ti­ve op­por­tu­ni­ties that could enhan­ce its po­si­tio­ning wi­thin the te­le­com­mu­ni­ca­ti­ons va­lue chain, no ac­qui­si­ti­ons or in­or­ga­nic tran­sac­tions are as­su­med as part of the cur­rent ope­ra­ting pe­ri­me­ter or fi­nan­cial fo­re­casts. The out­look pre­sen­ted in this re­port is ba­sed ex­clu­si­ve­ly on the stan­da­lo­ne re­co­very tra­jec­to­ry of the exis­ting busi­ness ac­ti­vi­ties.

Re­cent lea­der­ship ch­an­ges, in­clu­ding the ap­point­ment of the new CEO, rein­force management’s em­pha­sis on ope­ra­tio­nal exe­cu­ti­on, fi­nan­cial di­sci­pli­ne, and cash-flow res­to­ra­ti­on. With a stream­li­ned or­ga­niza­tio­nal mo­del, im­pro­ving vi­si­bi­li­ty on traf­fic vo­lu­mes, and a tigh­ter cost struc­tu­re, Mex­e­dia is po­si­tio­ned to sta­bi­li­ze mar­gins th­rough 2025 and tran­si­ti­on toward sus­tained pro­fi­ta­bi­li­ty be­gin­ning in 2026.

Our dis­coun­ted cash flow va­lua­ti­on in­di­ca­tes a tar­get pri­ce of 50.00 Euro per share, which re­pres­ents si­gni­fi­cant po­ten­ti­al up­si­de re­la­ti­ve to cur­rent tra­ding le­vels. We be­lie­ve the mar­ket still pri­ces Mex­e­dia pri­ma­ri­ly on past vo­la­ti­li­ty ra­ther than on its im­pro­ving fun­da­men­tals and me­di­um term ear­nings po­ten­ti­al. With an in­cre­asing­ly fo­cu­sed stra­tegy, re­co­ve­ring mar­gins, and a re­turn to growth, we in­itia­te co­vera­ge with a BUY ra­ting.

You can down­load the re­se­arch here: 20251222_Mexedia_IC

Cont­act for ques­ti­ons:
GBC AG
Hal­der­stra­ße 27
86150 Augs­burg
⁰⁸²¹⁄₂₄₁₁₃₃ 0
research@​gbc-​ag.​de
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Of­fen­le­gung mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sens­kon­flik­te nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben ana­ly­sier­ten Un­ter­neh­men ist fol­gen­der mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sen­kon­flikt ge­ge­ben: (5a,11); Ei­nen Ka­ta­log mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sen­kon­flik­te fin­den Sie un­ter: http://​www​.gbc​-ag​.de/​d​e​/​O​f​f​e​n​l​e​g​ung
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Com­ple­ti­on: 18.12.2025 (10:30 a.m.)
First dis­tri­bu­ti­on: 22.12.2025 (8:30 a.m.)