Original-Research: Aspermont Ltd. (by GBC AG): Buy
| Original-Research: Aspermont Ltd. – from GBC AG
11.08.2026 / 13:00 CET/CEST Classification of GBC AG to Aspermont Ltd.
Q3 marks the transition from platform investment to visible operating leverage; Data & Intelligence strategy increasingly validated; BUY rating confirmed, price target adjusted to AUD 5.20 Aspermont’s third-quarter results provide the clearest evidence to date that the operational transformation outlined in our previous research reports is beginning to translate into improved financial performance. When we resumed coverage in March 2026, our investment case centred on the transition from a traditional specialist publisher to a scalable, subscription-led data and intelligence platform. In our June update, we highlighted that the completion of the main investment phase and the launch of the first Mining-IQ applications should gradually unlock operating leverage. The latest figures support this thesis: revenue reached a record level, while normalised EBITDA returned to break-even despite continued investment in new products. In the third quarter of 2025⁄26, Aspermont generated revenue of AUD 4.50 million, compared with AUD 3.60 million in the prior-year quarter, corresponding to growth of 25%. Normalised EBITDA improved to approximately break-even, following a loss of AUD 0.60 million in the same period of the previous year. This represents a significant operational improvement and indicates that revenue growth is increasingly translating into earnings. The quarter therefore marks an important step in the transition from several years of platform investment toward a more scalable and profitable business model. The revenue composition also demonstrates that growth is becoming more broadly based. Subscription and Data Licensing revenue increased by 4% to AUD 2.60 million, compared with AUD 2.50 million in the prior-year period. Other revenue advanced by 73% to AUD 1.90 million, up from AUD 1.10 million. This primarily reflects the strong development of Advertising, Nexus and Events. The Future of Mining Perth event, which was held in the third quarter rather than the fourth quarter as in the previous year, also contributed to the particularly strong quarterly performance. For the first nine months of 2025⁄26, total revenue increased by 18% to AUD 11.90 million, compared with AUD 10.10 million in the previous year. Subscription and Data Licensing revenue reached AUD 7.60 million, up slightly from AUD 7.50 million. Advertising and Nexus revenue increased to AUD 3.10 million from AUD 2.60 million, while Events contributed AUD 1.20 million. The figures show that the established publishing and subscription activities continue to provide a stable revenue base, while adjacent digital services and events are increasingly supporting growth. Annual recurring revenue has now exceeded AUD 11.0 million, with like-for-like growth currently tracking at approximately 7% to 8%, below the medium-term target of more than 10%. However, we see a credible path back to double-digit growth as several enterprise agreement discussions are currently progressing. We expect that two additional contract wins could be sufficient to lift ARR growth above 10%. In our view, the next phase is increasingly about monetising the existing platform and customer relationships rather than building additional infrastructure. Mining IQ is central to this next phase. The announced AUD 0.55 million Rio Tinto project provides important validation of Aspermont’s Data & Intelligence strategy. Following delivery of the historical archive, Rio Tinto is expected to receive six months of platform access, creating the potential for recurring revenues thereafter. More broadly, expanding access to Aspermont’s daily data offering could support materially higher contract values. Longer term, combining historical, daily proprietary, partner and third-party data could transform individual projects into larger recurring enterprise relationships. The timing of two larger Nexus contracts with a combined value of approximately AUD 1.5 million has shifted. Importantly, these are project contracts rather than recurring Data & Intelligence revenues. We expect one contract to progress during the fourth quarter, while the second could move into FY2026/27. Consequently, only a limited contribution from these projects is likely to be recognised in the current financial year. We regard this primarily as a timing issue rather than an indication of weaker underlying demand, but it reduces the likelihood of reaching our previous FY2025/26 revenue forecast. Cash remains an important short-term consideration, with the balance standing at AUD 0.90 million as of 30 June 2026. However, the financing position is stronger than the cash balance alone suggests. Aspermont holds 15 million shares in Tāiko, representing approximately 5% of the company and providing meaningful additional liquidity optionality as the existing escrow restrictions gradually expire. We therefore believe that Aspermont has additional flexibility to finance the continued build-out of its Data & Intelligence activities without necessarily requiring an equity raise. We reduce our FY2025/26 revenue forecast from AUD 16.90 million to AUD 16.10 million. Based on nine-month revenue of AUD 11.90 million, this implies Q4 revenue of approximately AUD 4.20 million. The adjustment primarily reflects the delayed timing of the larger Nexus projects rather than weaker underlying trading. We also now expect FY2025/26 EBITDA to remain negative. Importantly, we continue to expect a significant improvement in FY2026/27 and FY2027/28 as enterprise contracts, Data & Intelligence revenues and operating leverage increasingly contribute to the earnings profile. Following the increase in the risk-free rate from 3.00% to 3.50%, the revision to our forecasts and the increase in shares outstanding to 11,756,686, our updated DCF model yields a forward price target of AUD 5.20 (previously: AUD 5.45), corresponding to the FY2026/27 fair value. We therefore confirm our BUY rating. Overall, Q3 and the subsequent developments strengthen our longer-term investment case despite a more conservative near-term forecast. The key development is that the Data & Intelligence opportunity is becoming increasingly tangible, with Rio Tinto providing an early blueprint for moving from individual data projects toward materially larger recurring enterprise relationships. At the same time, the Tāiko holding provides additional financing flexibility. We also regard a potential UK listing positively, particularly as Aspermont increasingly aligns its business and reporting structure with international data and information companies such as RELX. The key catalysts are now enterprise contract wins, Data & Intelligence commercialisation and sustainable positive cash flow. You can download the research here: 20260811_Aspermont_Comment Contact for questions: |
||||||||||||||||||
Contact
Studies
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
Telefon: +49 821 241133–0
E‑mail: office(@)gbc-ag.de
Follow us!
