Original-Research: CENIT AG (by GBC AG): Buy
| Original-Research: CENIT AG – from GBC AG
13.05.2026 / 11:30 CET/CEST Classification of GBC AG to CENIT AG
Q1 revenue in line with expectations, EBITDA improves significantly; target price and rating confirmed In the first three months of 2026, CENIT AG achieved a significant improvement in its operating metrics. While revenue rose only slightly to €52.47 million (PY: €51.51 million), the cost-saving measures implemented in previous reporting periods led to a noticeable improvement in EBITDA to €5.03 million (PY: -€2.44 million). The slight increase in revenue, which is in line with expectations, is attributable in particular to the further rise in revenue from proprietary software sales by 4.7% to €4.62 million (PY: €4.41 million) and in consulting/service revenue by 4.5% to €23.15 million (PY: €22.15 million). In contrast, revenue from third-party software fell to €24.58 million (PY: €24.92 million), which, in addition to a slight decline in the customer base, is attributable to the continuing SaaS trend. Driven by market conditions, the trend continued whereby increases were achieved particularly in the high-margin revenue segments. The rise in high-margin revenue led to a slight improvement in gross profit to €31.40 million (PY: €30.70 million) and in the gross profit margin to 59.8% (PY: 59.6%). Below gross profit, the cost-saving measures achieved following the completion of the restructuring program become apparent. CENIT AG recorded a significant reduction in personnel expenses in particular, down to €22.69 million (PY: €28.74 million). In addition to the higher number of employees, the prior-year figure was impacted by extraordinary expenses of €3.35 million incurred in connection with the restructuring measures. Consequently, EBITDA rose to a new Q1 record of €5.03 million (PY: -€2.44 million), and the corresponding EBITDA margin to 9.6% (PY: ‑4.7%). The sharp rise in EBITDA is also reflected in the subsequent profit figures, which likewise set new records for a first quarter. EBIT increased to €2.97 million (PY: -€5.44 million), and net income rose to €2.51 million (PY: -€4.71 million). Of particular note is the once again high cash flow from operating activities amounting to €13.76 million (PY: €11.66 million). Typically, the company receives substantial customer payments at the beginning of the year for services to be rendered during the year. Compared to the end of the fiscal year on December 31, 2025, contract liabilities increased to €40.63 million (31.12.25: €21.61 million). This led to a corresponding decrease in working capital and, conversely, to an increase in cash and cash equivalents to €28.64 million (31.12.2025: €16.22 million). With the publication of the quarterly report, CENIT’s management team, under the new leadership of Martin Thiel (CEO) and Dr Johannes Fues (CFO), has confirmed the forecast published in the 2025 Annual Report. For the current financial year 2026, consolidated revenue of at least €210 million and EBITDA of at least €18 million are still expected. Whilst revenue has remained in line with expectations, the significant improvement in earnings, driven by sustained cost reductions and performance improvements, provides an excellent foundation for achieving the EBITDA guidance targets. In our view, the confirmation of the earnings guidance is due to the company’s currently conservative approach. The first quarter has shown that even with low revenue growth, achieved with a significantly reduced workforce, substantial cost savings and thus earnings improvements can be realised. On this basis, the coming quarters are also likely to show above-average earnings improvements, making an upward revision of guidance during the year probable. Until then, we are maintaining our forecasts for the current and coming financial years. For 2026, our figures of €214.74 million for revenue and €19.13 million for EBITDA are slightly above the lower end of the forecast range communicated by the company. Accordingly, we are also maintaining our DCF valuation model unchanged. With a fair value of €16.00 per share, we continue to assign a “BUY” rating. You can download the research here: 20260513_CENIT_Comment_engl Contact for questions: |
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