Original-Research: CENIT AG (by GBC AG): Buy
| Original-Research: CENIT AG – by GBC AG
05.08.2026 / 09:30 CET/CEST Classification of GBC AG to CENIT AG
Strong rise in earnings 1 HY 2026; Capital increase secured for the acquisition of ISR; Lower PT of €14.15 following capital increase Whilst CENIT AG had achieved a slight increase in turnover of 1.9% to €52.47 million in the first quarter, turnover in the second quarter, at €52.19 million, was almost exactly on a par with the previous year (Q2 25: €52.20 million). In the first six months of 2026, the company thus generated revenue of €104.66 million (previous year: €103.71 million), representing a marginal increase of 0.9%. This development is in line with expectations, particularly against the backdrop of the full-year revenue forecast of €210 million provided by management, which would represent a flat trend compared with the previous year’s revenue (2025: €209.51 million). Alongside the rise in high-margin revenue, the company benefited from the cost-saving measures implemented. In particular, the reduction in the workforce carried out as part of the ‘Project Performance’ restructuring programme led to a noticeable decline in staff costs to €46.72 million (previous year: €52.30 million). Despite the slight growth in turnover, EBITDA improved significantly to €8.52 million (previous year: €1.20 million). This marked a new half-year record. The EBITDA margin of 8.1 per cent (previous year: 1.2 per cent) is in line with historical levels from before the Keonys acquisition, when the company reported a significantly lower proportion of lower-margin trading revenue. On 7 July 2026, the company announced a planned capital increase, for which the subscription offer commenced on 3 August 2026. As part of the capital increase, 1.67 million new shares are being offered, representing 20% of the current share capital. Accordingly, the subscription ratio is 5:1, and the subscription price per share is €6.50. The gross proceeds from the issue amount to €10.88 million. The majority shareholder, PRIMEPULSE SE, has provided a written undertaking to exercise its subscription rights in full and to acquire any shares not taken up by the other shareholders. In effect, this secures the capital increase. The proceeds are to be used to acquire the outstanding 25.1% stake in ISR Information Products AG (ISR). No specific purchase price is given, but it is in the low double-digit millions. ISR, which is allocated to the EIM segment, was acquired in the 2022 financial year. €27.88 million was paid for the initial 74.9% stake. Agreements were also in place for the acquisition of the remaining shares. Since 1 April 2026, the ISR minority shareholders have been able to exercise their put option (a short put option from CENIT AG’s perspective), thereby creating a purchase obligation for CENIT AG. In our view, the minority shareholders have exercised this option. According to the annual report for the 2025 financial year, ISR generated a profit after tax of €3.45 million in 2025. On a pro rata basis, this represented minority interests of €0.87 million. As a result of the full acquisition, CENIT’s profit after tax is therefore likely to be approximately €1.0 million higher annually in future. Based on the purchase price in the low double-digit millions, which we assume is roughly in line with the level of the capital increase, this results in a calculated P/E ratio of 11. With the publication of its half-year results for 2026, CENIT AG has also confirmed its forecast for the current financial year 2026. The company continues to expect consolidated turnover of at least €210 million and EBITDA of at least €18.0 million. Based on the figures achieved in the first half of the year, the confirmed forecast appears high achievable. Whilst, in terms of revenue, more than 50% of the full-year revenue target was already achieved in the first six months, a further increase in earnings would need to be realised in the second half of the year. Given the company’s typical distribution of revenue and earnings, with the focus on the final quarter of the year, we consider the likelihood of meeting the targets to be very high. We therefore confirm our estimates, which are already slightly above the minimum figures communicated in the guidance. We expect revenue of €214.74 million and EBITDA of €19.13 million. We have also left our forecasts for the coming financial years unchanged. However, there are changes in terms of profit after tax, which take into account the elimination of minority interests for ISR Information Products AG. We expect the transaction to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2026, meaning that the impact on profit after tax in this financial year will remain limited. From the coming financial year onwards, we anticipate the elimination of minority interests amounting to approximately €1.0 million per year. We have taken this into account accordingly in our estimates of profit after tax for the coming financial years. However, the dilution effect resulting from the higher number of shares is accompanied by lower earnings per share. As part of our DCF valuation model, we have determined a new target price of €14.15 per share (previously: €16.00). The decline in the target price is almost exclusively attributable to the dilution effect associated with the capital increase. Although we have calculated a higher enterprise value of €142.07 million (previously: €133.90 million), this is spread across 10.04 million shares (previously: 8.37 million shares). The capital increase and the payment of the purchase price are likely to result in a slight net reduction in cash and cash equivalents. However, the roll-over effect (new target price horizon: 30 June 2027) has led to an increase in fair value. This has even offset the value-reducing effect of the rise in the risk-free interest rate to 3.5% (previously: 3.0%). We are maintaining our ‘BUY’ rating. You can download the research here: 20260805_CENIT_Comment_engl Contact for questions: |
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