Clas­si­fi­ca­ti­on of GBC AG to Fin­exi­ty AG

Di­gi­tal ca­pi­tal mar­ket in­fra­struc­tu­re for pri­va­te mar­kets with high sca­la­bi­li­ty po­ten­ti­al

Fin­exi­ty AG is a Ger­man fin­tech com­pa­ny that ope­ra­tes a di­gi­tal plat­form for the is­su­an­ce and tra­ding of so-cal­led to­ke­ni­zed se­cu­ri­ties. To­ke­niza­ti­on re­fers to the pro­cess of re­pre­sen­ting tra­di­tio­nal fi­nan­cial as­sets such as bonds, funds or equi­ties di­gi­tal­ly on a block­chain. The un­der­ly­ing tech­no­lo­gy is re­fer­red to as DLT. DLT stands for Dis­tri­bu­ted Led­ger Tech­no­lo­gy and de­scri­bes a de­cen­tra­li­zed da­ta­ba­se in which tran­sac­tions are re­cor­ded in a trans­pa­rent, se­cu­re and tam­per-re­sistant man­ner. This tech­no­lo­gy en­ables se­cu­ri­ties to be is­sued di­gi­tal­ly and traded more ef­fi­ci­ent­ly.

Fin­exi­ty com­bi­nes se­ve­ral func­tions wi­thin an in­te­gra­ted mo­del. The com­pa­ny struc­tures in­vest­ment pro­ducts, brings them to mar­ket as di­gi­tal se­cu­ri­ties and sub­se­quent­ly en­ables tra­ding th­rough its own plat­form. This gi­ves in­ves­tors ac­cess to pri­va­te mar­kets that have his­to­ri­cal­ly been ac­ces­si­ble main­ly to in­sti­tu­tio­nal in­ves­tors. Is­suers be­ne­fit from a stan­dar­di­zed di­gi­tal in­fra­struc­tu­re, a gro­wing in­ves­tor net­work and es­tab­lished dis­tri­bu­ti­on part­ner­ships with ex­ter­nal part­ners. At the same time, Fin­exi­ty al­re­a­dy ope­ra­tes its own in­fra­struc­tu­re and di­gi­tal eco­sys­tem for the is­su­an­ce, pla­ce­ment and tra­ding of di­gi­tal se­cu­ri­ties. Th­rough the in­te­gra­ted OTC tra­ding ve­nue, an in­cre­asing num­ber of is­su­an­ces are be­ing lis­ted that were not struc­tu­red by Fin­exi­ty its­elf. As a re­sult, the plat­form is gra­du­al­ly evol­ving from a pure is­su­an­ce and tra­ding so­lu­ti­on into an open in­fra­struc­tu­re for di­gi­tal se­cu­ri­ties. Stra­te­gi­cal­ly, Fin­exi­ty aims to de­ve­lop this plat­form into a re­gu­la­ted di­gi­tal mar­ket in­fra­struc­tu­re over time. This me­ans that, go­ing for­ward, the com­pa­ny in­tends not only to struc­tu­re and dis­tri­bu­te se­cu­ri­ties, but also to ope­ra­te a re­gu­la­ted di­gi­tal tra­ding and sett­le­ment sys­tem. If suc­cessful, Fin­exi­ty would be able to par­ti­ci­pa­te more di­rect­ly in each tran­sac­tion and ge­ne­ra­te hig­her and part­ly re­cur­ring re­ve­nues. This stra­te­gic de­ve­lo­p­ment spe­ci­fi­cal­ly in­vol­ves the trans­for­ma­ti­on of the exis­ting OTC plat­form into a ful­ly re­gu­la­ted DLT-ba­sed tra­ding and sett­le­ment sys­tem (DLT TSS) un­der the EU DLT Pi­lot Re­gime. Un­li­ke tra­di­tio­nal mul­ti­la­te­ral tra­ding sys­tems, the in­ten­ded mo­del in­te­gra­tes not only the tra­ding func­tion but also sett­le­ment and an on-chain re­gis­ter. This could al­low clea­ring and sett­le­ment pro­ces­ses to take place al­most in real time on a T+0 ba­sis, which would crea­te struc­tu­ral ef­fi­ci­en­cy gains and im­pro­ve mar­gin qua­li­ty. If suc­cessful, Fin­exi­ty would evol­ve from a plat­form so­lu­ti­on into a re­gu­la­ted mar­ket in­fra­struc­tu­re ope­ra­tor.

Fi­nan­ci­al­ly, Fin­exi­ty re­mains cle­ar­ly in an in­vest­ment and sca­ling pha­se. Our fo­re­casts are lar­ge­ly de­ri­ved from the am­bi­tious growth tar­gets com­mu­ni­ca­ted by ma­nage­ment and the stra­te­gic road­map to de­ve­lop the com­pa­ny into a re­gu­la­ted di­gi­tal tra­ding and sett­le­ment in­fra­struc­tu­re. The un­der­ly­ing sce­na­rio the­r­e­fo­re as­su­mes that the an­noun­ced ex­pan­si­on in tran­sac­tion vo­lu­mes, the re­gu­la­to­ry mi­le­sto­nes and the de­ve­lo­p­ment of the plat­form will be im­ple­men­ted as plan­ned. For 2026 we ex­pect re­ve­nue of €9.62 mil­li­on, EBITDA of mi­nus €3.53 mil­li­on and a net re­sult of mi­nus €3.75 mil­li­on. The ne­ga­ti­ve pro­fi­ta­bi­li­ty re­flects a de­li­bera­te­ly front-loa­ded in­vest­ment stra­tegy. In­vest­ments in tech­no­lo­gi­cal in­fra­struc­tu­re, re­gu­la­to­ry de­ve­lo­p­ment and the ex­pan­si­on of the team in dis­tri­bu­ti­on and ca­pi­tal mar­kets lead to a high fi­xed cost base in the short term that is de­si­gned to sup­port si­gni­fi­cant­ly hig­her vo­lu­mes in the fu­ture.

In our mo­del the ope­ra­tio­nal tur­ning point is re­a­ched in 2028. At re­ve­nue of €24.20 mil­li­on we ex­pect po­si­ti­ve EBITDA of €0.21 mil­li­on and a net re­sult of €0.00 mil­li­on. In our view this re­pres­ents the brea­k­e­ven point. This sce­na­rio as­su­mes that the plan­ned in­crease in tran­sac­tion vo­lu­mes is rea­li­zed and that the plat­form re­a­ches a cri­ti­cal sca­le at which the exis­ting cost struc­tu­re is ful­ly co­ver­ed.

In the fol­lo­wing ye­ars the sca­la­bi­li­ty of the busi­ness mo­del be­co­mes cle­ar­ly vi­si­ble. For 2029 we mo­del re­ve­nue of €40.00 mil­li­on, EBITDA of €7.00 mil­li­on and a net re­sult of €6.79 mil­li­on. For 2030 we ex­pect re­ve­nue of €80.00 mil­li­on, EBITDA of €22.00 mil­li­on and a net re­sult of €21.79 mil­li­on, cor­re­spon­ding to an EBITDA mar­gin of around 27.5 per­cent. The strong mar­gin ex­pan­si­on re­flects the ope­ra­ting le­vera­ge of a di­gi­tal plat­form mo­del in which ad­di­tio­nal vo­lu­mes can be pro­ces­sed at com­pa­ra­tively low in­cre­men­tal cost.

If the am­bi­tious growth and sca­ling tar­gets com­mu­ni­ca­ted by ma­nage­ment are achie­ved as plan­ned, we see si­gni­fi­cant up­si­de po­ten­ti­al for the share. In par­ti­cu­lar, the suc­cessful trans­for­ma­ti­on into a sca­lable and re­gu­la­ted di­gi­tal tra­ding and sett­le­ment in­fra­struc­tu­re plat­form would in our view lead to a sub­stan­ti­al re­ra­ting of the com­pa­ny, as both re­ve­nue vi­si­bi­li­ty and mar­gin qua­li­ty would im­pro­ve struc­tu­ral­ly. Ba­sed on our DCF mo­del we de­ri­ve a fair va­lue of €72.00 per share and as­sign a Buy ra­ting.

You can down­load the re­se­arch here: 202600318_IC_Finexity_EN

Cont­act for ques­ti­ons:
GBC AG
Hal­der­stras­se 27
86150 Augs­burg
⁰⁸²¹⁄₂₄₁₁₃₃ 0
research@​gbc-​ag.​de
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Of­fen­le­gung mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sens­kon­flik­te nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben ana­ly­sier­ten Un­ter­neh­men ist fol­gen­der mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sen­kon­flikt ge­ge­ben: (5a,11); Ei­nen Ka­ta­log mög­li­cher In­ter­es­sen­kon­flik­te fin­den Sie un­ter: https://​www​.gbc​-ag​.de/​d​e​/​O​f​f​e​n​l​e​g​ung
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Com­ple­ti­on: 18.03.2026 (20:00)
In­iti­al re­lease: 19.03.2026 (10:00)