| Original-Research: OIO Group – by GBC AG
16.07.2026 / 13:00 CET/CEST Classification of GBC AG to OIO Group
The expected ramp-up in vehicle production and further scaling of the P‑platform open up significant growth potential Following the completion of the acquisition of De Tomaso at the end of April 2026, the OIO Group (formerly ESGL Holdings Ltd.) has entered the ultra-luxury automotive sector. With its hypercar business activities, the OIO Group is thus operating in the fast-growing ultra-luxury automotive segment, which, according to various market studies (McKinsey & Company, Oliver Wyman), is expected to see long-term (average) sales growth of around 14.0%. The past financial year 2025 was characterised exclusively by the environmental and recycling business. Owing to a decline in waste management services, OIO recorded a moderate year-on-year fall in turnover during this financial period to USD 5.83 million (PY: USD 6.10 million). Owing to this decline in revenue and a general significant increase in the cost base, a negative operating result (Adj. EBITDA) of ‑USD 1.37 million (PY: USD 2.32 million) was recorded. A decline was also recorded at the net profit level, to USD ‑4.76 million (PY: USD ‑0.63 million). By entering the hypercar segment, the OIO Group intends, via De Tomaso, to benefit disproportionately from market growth in the ultra-luxury car segment (targeting luxury car collectors and UHNWIs with its own models). The growth strategy being pursued is based primarily on expanding the vehicle range (new limited-edition models and model variants) and the distribution network to increase market presence and strengthen the De Tomaso brand through strategic partnerships and merchandising initiatives. In the short to medium term, the OIO Group’s revenue growth, as we anticipate it, is expected to be driven predominantly by De Tomaso’s business activities (the hypercar business) and, in particular, by the gradual ramp-up of production of the limited-edition De Tomaso P72 and P900 models, which have already been launched on the market. Specifically, we anticipate that production (followed by customer deliveries) of these two De Tomaso models at external manufacturing partners will commence at the end of 2026, peak in the subsequent financial year 2027, and conclude in 2028. In addition, we expect the first spin-offs and model variants of the P72 to be launched in limited editions in 2027 and to be produced between 2028 and 2030. These should then lead to new peaks in production and sales in 2028 and 2029. At the same time, we anticipate that around 2027 the first completely new vehicle models based on the existing P platform will also be launched on the market and will subsequently go into production in limited editions as well; these new models are expected to significantly boost the forecast production level in 2030 in particular. Accordingly, we expect De Tomaso production to rise rapidly from an expected seven vehicles in 2026 to 212 vehicles in 2030. Based on our forecast sales and production volumes (with estimated vehicle prices ranging from around USD 1.20 million to around USD 4.90 million) for the individual financial years, we also anticipate strong revenue growth for the current financial year and for the years that follow. With regard to the current financial year 2026, we anticipate a sharp year-on-year increase in consolidated revenue to USD 21.70 million (PY: USD 5.83 million), of which an estimated USD 15.71 million is expected to be attributable to the De Tomaso business, which is being consolidated for the first time, and only USD 5.99 million to the traditional recycling and environmental business. In line with the expected strong ramp-up of De Tomaso vehicle production in the coming financial years, we anticipate a dynamic rise in consolidated revenue to USD 402.05 million in the financial year 2030. Accordingly, we project an average annual growth rate (CAGR27–30) of 107.5% for this period. The Group revenue figures we forecast from the financial year 2027 onwards are based almost exclusively on the projected strong expansion of the ultra-luxury car business (>95.0%). Thanks to its high degree of exclusivity and the brand’s strong appeal, De Tomaso has been able to command highly substantial prices for the vehicle models it has launched to date (P72 and P900) amongst its traditionally very affluent clientele. Thanks to this significant pricing flexibility, combined with comprehensive cost control across the supplier network, we believe De Tomaso should be able to achieve high gross profit margins of more than 50.0% (GBCe) on its limited vehicle sales in future. Against this backdrop, we anticipate a strong improvement in EBITDA for the current financial year 2026 compared with the previous year, to USD 3.42 million (PY: ‑USD 1.37 million) and, consequently, a return to operational profitability. Looking ahead to subsequent years, based on the forecast strong growth and expected significant economies of scale, we anticipate a dynamic rise in EBITDA to USD 197.62 million in 2030. In parallel with this, the EBITDA margin is expected to surge from a forecast 15.8% in 2026 to 49.2% in 2030. As part of our DCF valuation model, we have determined a target price of € 3.87 (or 4.44 USD) per share. Based on the current share price, this implies an upside potential of approximately 125.4%. We are initiating our research coverage of OIO Group with a “BUY” rating. You can download the research here: 20260716_OIO_IC_final_ENG Contact for questions: Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Completion: 16.07.2026 (11:20 a.m.) |
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Original-Research: OIO Group (by GBC AG): BUY
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