| Original-Research: SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG – from GBC AG
21.07.2026 / 10:00 CET/CEST Classification of GBC AG to SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG
From the Investment Phase to the Scaling Phase: Smartbroker+ with Significant Margin Potential Following a 2025 fiscal year marked by strong growth but investment-heavy earnings, Smartbroker Holding AG is now in a crucial scaling phase. Consolidated revenue rose significantly by 30.1% to €68.28 million in fiscal year 2025 (previous year: €52.48 million), thereby exceeding the original forecast by a noticeable margin. The main growth driver was the transaction business centered on Smartbroker+, whose revenue increased to €40.14 million (previous year: €27.23 million). The media business also performed well, with revenue of €28.14 million (previous year: €25.25 million), and continued to serve as the Group’s stable earnings anchor. As a result, the revenue structure is increasingly shifting in favor of the faster-growing brokerage business, while the media segment continues to deliver reach, brand awareness, and potential lead generation. Operationally, Smartbroker benefited in fiscal year 2025 from a significantly expanded customer base, high trading activity, and a positive capital market environment. The number of clients increased to more than 259,000 (previous year: approximately 188,000), client assets rose to €14.7 billion (previous year: €10.0 billion), and the number of trades executed reached 6.7 million (previous year: 3.8 million). This development shows that, following the stabilization phase, Smartbroker+ is increasingly serving as a key growth driver for the Group. At the same time, part of the strong momentum in 2025 was likely driven by exceptionally high trading activity in a volatile market environment, which is why we are initially assuming a more cautious revenue trend for 2026. Earnings performance for the 2025 fiscal year was characterized by a deliberate increase in growth investments. EBITDA after customer acquisition costs amounted to -€0.33 million (previous year: €8.97 million). The main reason was the significant increase in customer acquisition costs to €9.81 million (previous year: €1.68 million). However, EBITDA before customer acquisition costs remained clearly positive at €9.5 million (previous year: €10.7 million), although the previous year benefited from a positive one-time effect of €4.2 million. Adjusted for this effect, the operating base before growth investments has thus improved. The Media segment generated EBITDA of €6.7 million (previous year: €4.8 million) and achieved an EBITDA margin of 23.8% (previous year: 19.0%). The transaction business was still operating at a loss after customer acquisition costs but already showed a positive operating basis before acquisition costs. For fiscal year 2026, we expect a moderate increase in revenue to €70.00 million (2025: €68.28 million). Our estimate thus falls within the revenue range of €66.00 million to €72.00 million communicated by management. We view 2026 as a transitional year in which the larger customer base will contribute to stabilizing revenue, but earnings growth will be limited by persistently high customer acquisition costs, product investments, the elimination of PFOF, and an increasingly competitive environment. For 2026, we forecast EBITDA of €0.50 million and a net loss of €8.15 million. Starting in 2027, the scaling of the business model should become more clearly visible. For 2027, we expect revenue of €83.00 million and EBITDA of €11.50 million. The main driver is likely to be the transaction business, which should benefit from a larger and more mature customer base, rising account balances, higher product usage, and additional revenue from trading activities, savings plans, interest, and cash components. At the same time, marketing intensity relative to revenue should gradually normalize. For 2027, we expect the company to return to profitability with a net income of €4.00 million. For 2028, we forecast a further increase in revenue to €99.00 million, EBITDA of €22.00 million, and net income of €13.00 million. This would mark Smartbroker Holding’s gradual transition into a phase of profitability in which Smartbroker+ represents the Group’s primary driver of value and earnings. The balance sheet continues to provide a solid foundation for the growth strategy. Despite the consolidated net loss for the year, the equity ratio as of December 31, 2025, stood at a high 73.4% (December 31, 2024: 77.5%). Cash and cash equivalents totaled €19.87 million (December 31, 2024: €22.01 million), while bank liabilities were significantly reduced to €2.93 million (December 31, 2024: €6.19 million). As a result, the company has sufficient financial flexibility to fund further product development and customer acquisition. Based on our DCF model, the fair value per share is €17.80 (previously: €17.60). The valuation reflects the increasing scale of the brokerage business, the stable earnings base of the media segment, and the expected return to positive annual results starting in 2027. Additional potential from the B2B trading API, new account and portfolio types, AI-powered trading features, offerings for heavy traders, and the retirement savings portfolio is only partially factored into our forecasts. Against this backdrop, we assign a BUY rating to Smartbroker Holding AG shares with a price target of €17.80. You can download the research here: 20260720_Anno_Smartbroker_EN Contact for questions: |
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Original-Research: OIO Group (by GBC AG): BUY
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