Original-Research: UmweltBank AG (by GBC AG): BUY
| Original-Research: UmweltBank AG – from GBC AG
04.08.2026 / 09:30 CET/CEST Classification of GBC AG to UmweltBank AG
New lending business rises sharply; focus on customer deposits shifts from growth to quality of earnings In the first six months of 2026, UmweltBank AG achieved a largely stable performance in net interest income, at €27.27 million (previous year: €28.82 million). In its retail banking business, which makes a significant contribution to net interest income, the bank recorded an increase in the number of customers to 195,157 in the first six months of 2026 (as at 31 December 2025: 184,210). On the one hand, the bank benefited from its ongoing instant-access savings promotion (3% interest p.a. for the first three months); on the other hand, its current account, which was introduced in mid-2025, has gained momentum. In the first half of 2026, the number of customers rose by around 11,000. At the same time, the number of current accounts more than doubled in the second quarter of 2026 to 7,400 (Q1 26: 3,500). However, the sharp rise in customer numbers was offset by a decline in customer deposits to €4,209 million (31 December 2025: €4,544 million). This is primarily attributable to the expiry of the three-month special interest rate offer for new customers acquired in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, this is offset by a renewed strengthening of the corporate banking business. Following the reduction in capital requirements, gross new lending improved in the second quarter to €147 million (previous year: €11 million), resulting in a new business volume of €183 million (previous year: €40 million) for the first half of 2026. This figure is already, after just six months, noticeably higher than the figure for the previous financial year (2025: €120 million). The slight decline in net interest income was accompanied by a significant fall in the financial result to €1.92 million (previous year: €13.87 million). In recent years, however, the financial result had been positively influenced by extraordinary profit distributions from subsidiaries. These relate to the sale of the equity investment business, which, as expected, is to be completely phased out. Net commission and trading income also declined slightly. The decline in total income to €33.38 million (previous year: €42.36 million), which is attributable in particular to the lower financial result, is offset by significant savings in operating costs amounting to €31.20 million (€35.66 million). Although profit before tax, at €2.18 million (previous year: €6.69 million), was below the previous year’s figure, the quality of earnings was higher given the absence of the exceptional items recorded in the previous year. In view of the somewhat below-expectation earnings performance in the first half of the year, and in particular due to lower customer retention following the expiry of the three-month special interest rate period, the company expects to achieve the lower end of its forecast range. The outlook remains unchanged, with net interest income of €60–65 million, net financial income of €4–8 million and net commission income of €10–15 million forecast. The pre-tax profit forecast by management of €12.5 to 17.5 million also remains valid, although the lower end of the range is now anticipated. In line with the company’s guidance, we assume that the lower end of the forecast range for net interest income will be achieved for the current financial year 2026. With an expected volume of customer deposits of around €4.4 billion (previous forecast: €5.4 billion), we forecast net interest income of €60.41 million (previous forecast: €63.85 million). The estimates for subsequent years, however, as well as the forecasts for net financial and commission income, remain unchanged. For the current financial year, we are also revising downwards the profit before tax and allocation to reserves to €12.02 million (previous forecast: €14.36 million). This places us slightly below the company’s forecast range and reflects a somewhat more cautious approach. For the current financial year, we have also assumed a normal tax charge (previous year: tax income of €2.83 million). Furthermore, we do not anticipate any further additions to or releases from the fund for general banking risks, which is why we initially expect a decline in profit after tax before it is set to rise sharply from 2027 onwards. The sum of the discounted residual earnings and the terminal value amounts to €331.22 million (previously: €372.66 million). Taking into account the 41.40 million outstanding shares, the fair enterprise value per share is €8.00 (previously: €9.00). The reduction in the target price is partly due to the adjustment of the forecast for the current financial year 2026, but is primarily attributable to the market-driven rise in the risk-free interest rate and, consequently, in the cost of equity. We therefore maintain our “BUY” rating. You can download the research here: 20260804_UmweltBank_Update_engl Contact for questions: |
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